Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Doncaster and Newbury for his three stats-based selections on Thursday, July 13th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
DONCASTER 3.10
BANDELLO (system – Twilight Son, second time out, beaten by 7L or less on debut)
Progeny of the sire Twilight Son have a poor record on their racecourse debuts, landing just four of their 175 starts (2.3% strike-rate) for a huge loss of £159.59 to a £1 level stake at SP. However, those who were beaten but showed promise by finishing seven lengths or less behind the winner make good bets at the second time of asking, scoring 18 times from 74 starts (24.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £23.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. John Quinn’s most recent runner on this system – Twilight Romance – was a 7-4 winner a York and perhaps BANDELLO, too green to do himself full justice when beaten by just over three lengths into a 9-1 fourth at Carlisle, can follow suit.
DONCASTER 3.45
KHAMSIN (system – Jamie Spencer, Doncaster, finished fourth or worse last time out)
Jamie Spencer has a good record at Doncaster where horses ridden patiently – his signature style – are often favoured. Since 2010, backing Spencer’s mounts who finished fourth or worse last time has proved to be the value call, with 31 winners from 188 bets (16.5%) for a profit of £87.58 to a £1 level stake at SP, including eight from 24 (33%, +£41.33 for the David Simcock yard. The pair combine here with KHAMSIN, who kept on well into fourth place – doing best of those to come from the back – when making his debut at Yarmouth in late May.
NEWBURY 6.10
DUFRESNE (system – Tom Dascombe, restricted novice stakes, not debut)
Tom Dascombe runners, who had the benefit of at least one previous outing, have a good record in restricted novice contests, landing seven of their 19 starts for a profit of £33.66 to a £1 level stake at SP. DUFRESNE was too green to do himself justice but shaped with promise when fifth with Chester on his recent debut and can take a step forward tonight.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today.
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.30) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and stakes not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
- View the latest horse racing results from the UK and Ireland.
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
