Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew found Ascot winner CITY STREAK on Friday and has four recommended bets/trades at Ascot on Saturday, July 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
ASCOT 1.50
In the past ten years, horses who prepped at Newmarket are seven from 28 in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes for a profit of £24.32 to a £1 level stake at SP. CRY FICTION, runner-up to the impressive Star Of Mystery in Listed company at HQ last time, qualifies on this angle and the drying ground is in her favour. She was beaten by four lengths at Newmarket but was 40-1 against the winners 4-5f and she pulled four lengths clear of the third. The Ascot GoingStick suggests that the ground is marginally quicker towards the stands’ side rail and her high draw in stall 10 of 12 could be advantageous. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back CRY FICTION in Ascot 1.50
ASCOT 2.25
DOUBLE DRAW OF WINNER
Late and wide, round the outside, is the usual route to victory on the round course at Ascot and we saw countless races won by high draws at the Royal Meeting. The bias has been obvious for years yet we still regularly hear trainers moaning when their runners are drawn high. I’m expecting the low-drawn prominent racers to struggle in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes over the round mile today and my shortlist comprises of CADEAU BELLE (stall 5), ZENGA (stall 9) and SEA OF THEIVES (stall 10). Cadeau Belle has been well supported, so we’re probably going to break even if she wins but I still want to buy DOUBLE DRAW OF WINNER in the hope that one of my other fancies wins. Zenga improved for patient tactics when a close-up fourth in Listed company at Pontefract last time and will hopefully be ridden the same way, while SEA OF THIEVES fared best of those to come from off the pace when runner-up at Newbury on her latest outing.
Recommendation: Buy DOUBLE DRAW OF WINNER in Ascot 2.25
ASCOT 3.00
Generally speaking, a patient ride is what’s required to land a big-field handicap on the straight course at Ascot but seven of the last ten winners of the International Stakes made the running or raced prominently and, in a race lacking obvious pacesetters, I’m going to chance MISTER BLUEBIRD at a huge price. Heather Main’s five year-old has only raced here twice before, landing a 19-runner 6f handicap before a one-length third over the same trip. He just about stays this far and his dam, Childesplay, won over a straight 7f on soft ground (at Newbury). Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Mister Bluebird is in stall 9 towards the far side of the track and I also one to have one of the higher-drawn runners on my side – ROPEY GUEST, drawn top of the shop in stall 27. George Margarson’s six-year-old fared best of those drawn low when runner-up to BIGGLES in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last time and probably doesn’t deserve to be four or five times the price of that rival. He also fared best of his group in the Bunbury Cup in 2020 and 2021 and though those eyecatching runs were both followed by unplaced efforts in today’s International Stakes, the ground was too fast for him on each occasion. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market.
Recommendation: Back MISTER BLUEBIRD & ROPEY GUEST in Ascot 3.00
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