Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew heads to the televised card at Newcastle (AW) for three recommended bets/trades on Saturday, July 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWCASTLE 2.05
Those drawn middle-to-high are likely to dominate in the Northumberland Plate today (Newcastle 2.05) and a buy of DOUBLE DRAW OF WINNER with Spreadex looks warranted. Since Newcastle swapped turf for Tapeta in 2016, low draws (stalls 1, 2 and 3) have underperformed in handicaps of 12 or more runners on the round course (distances of 1m2f or further), with only 22 winners from 525 runners (4.2% strike-rate) for a loss of £279.63 to a £1 level stake at SP (-53.3% on turnover). The expected number of winners, based on their odds, was 34.8. We’ve only had seven renewals of this race on the Tapeta but one interesting stat in this period is ‘market position last time out’. Those who were in the first four in the betting in their prep race are seven from 57 for a profit of £29.00 whereas horses who were SP ranked five or lower are 0-80. Only seven of the runners started in the first four in the betting last time and they include well-drawn runners CALLING THE WIND (stall 14), OMNISCIENT (stall 9), POST IMPRESSIONIST (stall 19), GOOD SHOW (stall 17) and NATHANAEL GREENE (stall 11), adding further weight to the case.
Recommendation: Buy DOUBLE DRAW OF WINNER in Newcastle 2.05
NEWCASTLE 1.30
The Northumberland Vase Handicap – the consolation race for the Northumberland Place (see above) – is also likely to be dominated by those drawn middle-to-high. At the time of writing, there were six horses trading at odds of 9-1 or shorter and five of them were drawn in single-figure stalls. However, rather than buy Double Draw Of Winner with Spreadex I’m going to back Ed Dunlop’s CITIZEN GENERAL (stall 12), who wears cheekpieces for the first time. This year, his trainer is nine from 29 when using first-time headgear for a profit of £21.02 to a £1 level stake at SP. Twelve of those wore first-time cheekpieces and they included three winners and four seconds. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or back each-way in the fixed odds betting.
Recommendation: Back CITIZEN GENERAL in Newcastle 1.30
NEWCASTLE 3.15
James Tate is 13 from 71 with 2yo newcomers on the all-weather since the spring of 2016 for a profit of £44.35 to a £1 level stake at SP and STANLEY SPENCER looks very interesting on his racecourse debut. Tate-trained juvenile debutants who lined up at Newcastle recorded form figures of 126211304741 (4-11) for a profit of £10.10. Only two ran above Class 5 level (today’s race is a Class 3 contest) and both won (15-2 and 5-2). Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back STANLEY SPENCER in Newcastle 3.15
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today.
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All of the most popular horse racing spread betting markets like Winning Favourites, the 50-30-20-10 Race Index, Winning Distances, Favourites and Squared Numbers are included. When it comes sports spread betting sites in the UK today, Spreadex are number one. Check out SportsLens every day for more horse racing spread betting tips from Andrew Mount, complete with detailed analysis.
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- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens with fixed odds betting tips
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