Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew has line up two recommended bets/trades at Hereford (jumps) and Newcastle (AW) on Friday, March 24th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
HEREFORD 3.50
FAMILY POT is a cracking horse who loves right-handed tracks – especially Ludlow and Hereford – but he simply doesn’t enjoy soft ground. His record on good to soft or softer going, according to Proform’s going allowance rather than the official going, reads 40F3643363 (0-10). At the time of writing, he was priced up as the 5-2 favourite on ground described as good to soft, soft in places, and he could be vulnerable this afternoon. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market. Fixed odds punters might want to see with SUPASUNRISE, third over course and distance when last encountering soft going.
Recommendation: Oppose FAMILY POT in Hereford 3.50
NEWCASTLE 5.45
Progeny of the sire Manduro have a poor record on the all-weather, landing just 52 of their 697 starts in Britain and Ireland (7.5% strike-rate) for a huge loss of £376.32 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 66.76). Splitting those runners by age is very revealing…
2yos 13.1%
3yos 9.7%
4yos 5.1%
5yos 5.1%
6yos 5.8%
7yos 2.7%
8yo+ 0%
…BASHFUL was one of those race all-weather winners but that was when the 1-8 favourite at Kempton and his five runs on synthetics when starting at odds against all resulted in defeat. His three previous runs here have returned for, figures of 795 (0-3) and he looks vulnerable in a new headgear combination after a 68-day break.
Recommendation: Oppose BASHFUL in Newcastle 5.45
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