Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew enjoyed a nice place return with 50-1 third ALL AGLEAM on Friday and has seven stats-based picks on a very busy Saturday, September 9th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
THIRSK 2.05
GOLDEN BUNGLE (system – Ivan Furtado, nurseries)
Ivan Furtado’s GOLDEN BUNGLE, a 50-1 winner over 7f at Leicester on good to firm going in June, failed to handle the soft conditions when down the field at Doncaster next time and can bounce back on her nursery debut. Her trainer has a ten from 49 record in nurseries and backing all the qualifiers would have returned a lovely profit of £99.80 to a £1 level stake at SP.
ASCOT 3.10
VICTORY DANCE (system – Charlie Appleby, first-time blinkers, 2-3yos, beaten last time out)
Charlie Appleby has a good record when using first-time blinkers, especially on young horses (two and three-year-olds) who were beaten last time out. He’s won with 11 of the 32 qualifiers for a profit of £9.22 to a £1 level stake at SP, with eight of the beaten horses finishing second (28-1, 8-1, 7-2, 100-30, 3-1, 3-1, 5-2 and 7-4). VICTORY DANCE was only beaten by one length in a French Listed contest last time and will appreciate the switch to handicap company for the first time.
THIRSK 3.50
MILBANKE (system – Julie Camacho stable switchers in handicaps)
Julie Camacho does well at the first time of asking with horses she takes over from other handlers and is showing a profit of £62.00 in handicaps in the past ten years. Geldings aged four or younger are six from 34 (+£75.00) and MILBANKE, a dual winner for Karl Burke/Ruth Carr, looks very interested on his stable debut.
STRATFORD 4.15
LONG CALL (system – time of year)
LONG CALL tends to thrive at this time of year, landing five of his 17 starts in August/September for a profit of £21.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Tony Carroll’s veteran, runner-up over course and distance last time, can again reward each-way support.
ASCOT 4.20
HIGH SPIRITED (system – Belardo, 3yo+, 1m+, Flat)
Flat progeny of the sire Belardo tend to improve for time and a trip and simply backing all those aged three or older, who were running over 1m or further, would have found 82 winners from 543 bets (15.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £73.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. The Henry Candy-trained HIGH SPIRITED contributed with an 11-1 reappearance Windsor win (1m, good to firm) before finding 1m2f stretching her stamina when upped to Listed level at Goodwood. The short break and return to 1m can help her to bounce back on her handicap debut.
ASCOT 5.30
MINE’S S DOUBLE (system – Daniel & Claire Kubler stable switchers)
Since racing resumed after lockdown in the summer of 2020, the Kubler yard has form figures with stable switchers of 133921134 (3-9) for a profit of £24.00. That’s obviously a small sample size but with eight of the nine runners hitting the frame it could pay to have a small each-way interest on 25-1 poke MINE’S A DOUBLE on his first start since leaving Clive Cox. The five-year-old looks well drawn on yesterday’s evidence and has been gelded since disappointing at Sandown when we last saw him in July 2022.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30
SKI JUMP (system – Richard Fahey, second run since gelded, all-weather handicaps)
Since the spring of 2016, Richard Fahey is eight from 38 with all-weather handicappers on their second run after being gelded. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £58.50 to the usual £1 stake. SKI JUMP is the 20-1 outsider of the field but is taken to build on the promise of last month’s 16-1 eighth of 14 at Wolverhampton on his first start after being gelded.
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