Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Saturday Picks – September 17th

Andrew Mount
Andrew Mount
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Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.

Andrew has seven selections around the country on a typically busy Saturday (September 17th). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:

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AYR 1.20

IL BANDITO (system – James Horton turf runners, not debut)

Aside from on their racecourse debuts, rookie handler James Horton is 12 from 45 with his turf runners for a profit of £37.83 to the usual £1 stake. IL BANDITO looked on his way back when fifth of 13 over 7f at Thirsk last time in a race that is working out well and will appreciate any cut in the ground. His record in the spring (March to May) or autumn (September to November) reads 2131225311 (4-10). Stamina is a slight worry – he’s yet to win beyond 7f – but is worth chancing at big odds.

 

NEWBURY 1.40

MAX VEGA (system – seasonal pattern)

Like Il Bandito (see above), MAX VEGA has a poor record in the summer months and if we simply knock out his runs from June to August his record over 1m-1m4f becomes 21121 (3-5), with the first defeat by a neck at 18-1 on his racecourse debut. Softer ground would have been preferable but he’s worth a small interest at a big price.

 

AYR 1.55

PHANTOM FLIGHT (system – James Horton turf runners, not debut)

PHANTOM FLIGHT qualifies as a bet for me on the same angle as Il Bandito (Ayr 1.20) and was hugely impressive at York last time. He’s arguably unlucky not to be unbeaten in his five-race career – going down narrowly on his debut when in need of the experience and meeting trouble when a 14-1 third to New London at Newmarket in his only other defeat. The step up to Listed level is unlikely to trouble him.

 

AYR 3.05

MARINE WAVE (system – Firth Of Clyde Stakes, high draws)

In the past ten renewals, simply backing any runner drawn in stall 8 or higher would have found seven winners of the Firth Of Clyde Stakes (from 47 bets) for a profit of £54.50 (expected winners = 3.1). MARINE WAVE won against the draw bias at Southwell last time and is open to plenty of improvement.

 

CATTERICK 3.33

HOWYADOIN (system – Catterick 5f handicaps, good to soft/softer, high draws)

When the ground is good to soft or slower at Catterick the runners tend to migrate to the nearside rail in the straight, favouring high draws. Since the beginning of 2016, had we backed all those drawn in stall 8 or higher in 5f handicaps we’d have won 16 of our 137 bets and made a profit of £54.88. HOWYADOIN looks best of the sour qualifiers in this contest, as he has the early speed to get to the rail first.

 

NEWMARKET 3.51

DIAMOND BAY (system – New Bay handicappers, top three last time out)

Progeny of the sire New Bay who line up in handicap company on the back of a top three effort are 56 from 151 (37.1% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £117.49. DIAMOND BAY will appreciate the likely stronger gallop after his small-field Newcastle reverse and looks worth a bet.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00

TROIS VALLEES (system – New Bay handicappers, top three last time out)

TROIS VALLEES is a qualifier on the same angle as Diamond Bay (see above) and though 0-3 in handicaps, he only went down by a short head at Haydock last time. Franny Norton is an interesting booking and he can go one better.

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02/17/22

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18+ BeGambleAware.org, T&Cs apply. New customers on mobile only. 7 days to claim and stake £10 minimum bet at odds of 1.5 or greater to qualify. Free, void, cashed out or partially cashed out bets do not qualify. Max 3x £10 free bets credited on bet settlement. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 or greater. Free bets are non-withdrawable and stake not returned with winnings. 7 day expiry.


RELATED: Today’s NAP of the Day – Horse Racing Best Bet on Friday 16th Sept


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