Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew starts the new month with six stats-based selections across the country on Saturday, July 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWCASTLE 12.55
SPYCATCHER (system – Karl Burke, Class 1 all-weather sprints)
Since the start of 2010, Karl Burke is six from 30 in Class 1 sprints (5f-6f) on the all-weather for a profit of £23.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. SPYCATCHER was well beaten when just 7-2 for the Group 3 Chipchase stakes last year but the subsequent ten-month break and gelding operation suggest there were excuses that day. He won at Thirsk on his return before a solid 11-1 fourth of 22 in the Victoria Cup at Ascot, doing second best of his group, and the seven-week break should be viewed positively for this best-fresh type.
NEWMARKET 1.50
AUDIENCE (system – Gosden yard, second-time hood, won last time out)
Horses from the yard of John & Thady Gosden have a good record when fitted with a first-time hood and those that win often follow up. No less than ten of the 22 qualifiers scored (45.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £22.19 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.78). AUDIENCE bolted up in the first-time headgear at Leicester last backend and could be worth chancing to cause an upset (14-1 at the time of writing) on his belated return to action.
Windsor 3.20
ZODIAC STAR (system – Kodiac, gelded since last run)
Alan King has his string in good form (four winners from 14 runners in the past fortnight) and ZODIAC STAR, nicely drawn in stall 2, might prove capable of getting off the mark now that he’s been gelded. Progeny of his sire Kodiac have a 51 from 354 record in their first run after being gelded (14.4%) for a huge profit of £205.08 to a £1 level stake at SP.
WINDSOR 5.05
WOOLHAMPTON (system – Rod Millman, first-time blinkers, females)
In-form Rod Millman has a good record when using first-time blinkers on a filly or mare, scoring with eight of the 37 qualifiers since 2009 (21.6%) for a profit of £75.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. WOOLHAMPTON disappointed at Goodwood last time but looks worth a punt in the new headgear.
LINGFIELD 7.15
GRACEFUL THUNDER (system – drawn badly in Queen Mary at Royal Ascot last time out)
As is usually the case, it paid to be drawn high in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, with winner Crimson Advocate drawn in stall 26 of 26 (once adjusted for the non-runners). GRACEFUL THUNDER was only 13th that day but did third best of the disadvantaged far side group. Since 2017, simply backing any runners drawn in stall 12 or lower in the Queen Mary on their latest start, regardless of where they finished, would have found 20 winners from 65 runners (30.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £22.07 to a £1 level stake at SP.
LINGFIELD 7.45
LADY JANE GREY (system – Havana Grey, 5f, turf)
Progeny of the sire Havana Grey have a 41 from 189 record (21.7% strike-rate) when racing at the minimum trip on turf and backing them all would have returned a profit of £36.81 to a £1 level stake at SP. LADY JANE GREY (stall 6 of 7) has struggled in both runs this term but her sole success came over tonight’s course and distance and she could be worth chancing from what looks a good draw.
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