Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 15-2 Ffos Las winner ROOST on Friday and has five stats-based picks on Saturday, August 26th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
GOODWOOD 2.05
CARLA’S WAY (system – Crisford yard, first run after a wind operation)
Simon & Ed Crisford have a good record with horses returning from wind surgery, scoring with six of the 17 qualifiers for a profit of £8.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. On turf only, their record is 191112 (4-6) for a profit of £11.83, with the runner-up effort at odds of 17-2. If we ignore the colts, their record is six from ten (including all-weather runners) for a profit of £15.83. CARLA’S WAY, a winner at Doncaster on her debut, was only eighth when 100-30 favourite for the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot but can bounce back on her return from a wind operation.
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YORK 2.25
LORDSHIP (system – Melrose Handicap, pace & SP rank last time out angle)
Nine of the last ten winners of the 1m6f Melrose Handicap came from off the pace and horses who started as favourite for their prep race have a good record. Backing those likely to be ridden patiently (defined by a Proform pace rating of four or lower (on a scale of 0-12)), who started as SP favourite last time out, would have found five of the last ten winners (from 38 bets) for a profit of £29.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. There are two qualifiers today – the William Haggas-trained pair LORDSHIP and Alhambra Palace, with preference for the first-named who looks best equipped to handle the fast conditions.
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YORK 4.45
MAKE IT EASY (system – Mehmas, 2yos, three or more previous runs)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Mehmas can take a few runs to come to hand and simply backing all those who had the benefit of at least three previous runs would have found 64 winners from 374 bets (17.1% strike-rate) for a profit of ÂŁ22.29 to a ÂŁ1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 48.16, A/E = 1.33). MAKE IT EASY found the soft ground against her when only fourth at York on her fourth career outing and can bounce back to the sort of form that saw her win impressively at Catterick on her penultimate start.
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CARTMEL 5.06
MR RUMBALICIOUS (system – Jimmy Moffatt, stable switchers)
Trainer Jimmy Moffatt has a fine record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 12 of the 55 qualifiers since 2015 for a profit of ÂŁ96.00 to a ÂŁ1 level stake at SP. MR RUMBALICIOUS was pulled out of an intended stable debut run on heavy ground here last month and, with luck, this dual Flat winner (for Alan King) will be allowed to take his chance on the officially soft going today.
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CURRAGH 5.10
LETSBEFRANKABOUTIT (system – Paddy Twomey, second-time out, Flat)
Paddy Twomey is 23 from 72 with his Flat runners on their second career start for a profit of £12.75 to the usual £1 stake and LETSBEFRANKABOUTIT, clear best of the stands’ side group when third (11-8 favourite) in a course and distance maiden on his recent debut, can go two places better.
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