Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newbury, Newmarket, Doncaster and Market Rasen for his five stats-based selections on Saturday, August 19th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWBURY 3.00
ALPHA CAPTURE (system – William Haggas, first-time visor)
This century, William Haggas has a 13 from 65 record (20% strike-rate) with his first-time visored runners for a profit of £26.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who raced in the last 28 days were ten from 40 for a profit of £31.50. ALPHA CAPTURE could never get into contention in the Shergar Cup Sprint last time but might do better now blinkers are swapped for the visor with regular pilot Tom Marquand back in the saddle.
NEWMARKET 3.45
HAIZOOM (system – Charlie Johnston, Newmarket handicap, very recent run)
Charlie Johnston, like his father before him, does well in handicaps at Newmarket, especially with those who had the benefit of a very recent run (14 days or less). Since 2012, the Johnston yard is 65 from 338 (19.2%) under these conditions for a profit of £124.47 to the usual £1 stake (expected winners = 47.83, A/E = 1.36). HAIZOOM found the heavy ground against her when fourth at Hamilton last time and can reward each-way support.
Newbury 4.40
DUBAI WELCOME (system – Saeed Bin Suroor, older handicappers)
Since the beginning of 2018, Saeed Bin Suroor is 95 from 467 (20.2%) with horses aged four or older in handicaps in Britain and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £49.69 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 75.48, A/E = 1.26). DUBAI WELCOME also qualifies on a class-dropper angle for the yard and can defy an absence.
DONCASTER 5.25
MIN TILL (system – Al Kazeem, 4yo+, handicaps on turf)
Older turf handicappers (4yo+) by sire Al Kazeem have a 24 from 152 record (15.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £51.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran over 1m2f or shorter were 23 from 124 (18.6%) for a profit of £67.13. MIN TILL didn’t quite see out the stiff 7.5f when fourth at Beverley last time and might do better today.
MARKET RASEN 6.30
CHITCHAT SALLY (system – Laura Morgan chasers)
Simply backing all chasers trained by Laura Morgan would have found 82 winners from 390 bets (21%) for a lovely profit of £114.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 62.79, A/E = 1.31). Pace angle CHITCHAT SALLY is taken to cause a minor upset in this 3m contest.
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Related
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