Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newton Abbot, Cork and Musselburgh for his four stats-based selections on Saturday, April 8th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWTON ABBOT 2.15
AFTER THE FOX (system – Jane Williams, second run over fences)
Horses from the stable of Jane Williams (and her ex-husband Nick Williams when the pair trained together) are profitable to back on their second chase outing and AFTER THE FOX would have needed the experience when only fifth at Chepstow on his first run over the larger obstacles. The heavy ground and sharp track won’t be an issue and he looks a spot of value at around 9-1.
CORK 2.20
QUEENIE ST CALIRE (system – Fast Company, Flat, soft or heavy going)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company love to get their toe in and had we bet all the Flat runners on officially soft or heavy going we’d have won 127 of our 905 bets (14% strike-rate) and made a profit of £57.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s only 6.3% on turnover but we could have increased that to £420.33 (+46.5%) by taking the best price the night before racing. QUEENIE ST CLAIRE, who looks well drawn in stall 11, ran a promising fifth in a Curragh maiden on her reappearance and can get off the mark today.
CORK 4.05
NOCHE MAGICA (system – Paddy Twomey newcomers)
Backing all Paddy Twomey-trainer newcomers would have found 16 winners from 85 bets for a profit of £46.05 to a £1 level stake at SP, improving to 13 from 42 in Class E company for a profit of £74.81. NOCHE MAGICA makes his debut in this grade today and the son of Night Of Thunder is bred to relish the deep going. He looks the value play against the Aidan O’Brien-trained faviourite ALABAMA.
MUSSELBURGH 4.10
TREASURE STORM (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing have a great record with newcomers, regardless of age and who trains them. Backing them all would have found 28 winners from 130 bets (21.5%) for a profit of £29.50. TREASURE STORM looks well drawn in stall 7 of 10 and can get off the mark at the first time of asking.
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Related
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