Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew starts the new week with three system picks at Newton Abbot (jumps) and Windsor (Flat) on Monday, July 17th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWTON ABBOT 4.35
ROMANOR (system – time of year)
ROMANOR often thrives at this time of year and his record in jumps handicaps in the month of July stands at 5141133 (3-7) for a profit of £29.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. The Seamus Mullins-trained nine-year-old put in another solid shift when third in a Class 3 handicap chase at Stratford earlier this month and will be hard to beat now dropping back down in grade.
WINDSOR 6.10
This 6f novice contest looks very playable as Crocus Time, the 5-2 favourite at the time of writing, hasn’t looked anything special in his two runs to date. In fact, the others with prior experience will also need to improve on what they’ve shown so far and I’m happy to take a chance on George Boughey’s newcomer ROAST CHESTNUT. Progeny of her sire Night Of Thunder tend to do well on turf in their early starts and we could back all the debutants and make money. On good to soft or softer going (according to race times, not the official verdict), Night Of Thunder juvenile progeny are 18 from 88 for a profit of £95.70 to a £1 level stake at SP and she looks well drawn in stall 3.
WINDSOR 6.40
MARIAMNE (system – badly drawn in Queen Mary Stakes last time out)
Since 2017, simply backing any horse who was drawn in stall 12 or lower in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot when they have their next outing would have found 21 winners from 69 bets (31% strike-rate) for a profit of £19.27 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran in a nursery next time had form figures of 211323 (2-6), with the wins at 11-2 and 3-1 and the placed efforts at 11-1, 15-2, 5-1 and 7-2. MARIAMNE wasn’t disgraced from a difficult draw when 150-1 for the Queen Mary Stakes and will find this level far more realistic.
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