Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew starts the new week with three stats-based selections at Redcar and Kempton (AW) on Monday, April 17th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
REDCAR 1.50
GUEST LIST (system – Ardad progeny, running fresh on turf)
Progeny of the sire Ardad tend to go well after a break and backing all those on turf who were returning from at least eight weeks of the track would have found 11 winners from 69 bets (16%) for a profit of £3.88 (boosted to £22.00) by taking the best early price the night before racing). GUEST LIST, well drawn towards the far side rail in stall 1, ran with credit on her reappearance last term, finishing a hampered 22-1 sixth and might be able to sneak into the frame at similar odds this time around.
KEMPTON 5.30
NEVER THIS WAY (system – No Nay Never, Kempton, stall 6 or lower)
Progeny of the sire No Nay Never have a solid record on Kempton’s Polytrack surface and backing those drawn in stall 6 or lower would have found 17 winners from 83 bets (20.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £33.17 to the usual £1 stake. NEVER THIS WAY, a newcomer from the William Haggas yard, can enhance those figures in this 6f novice contest.
KEMPTON 7.00
PINWHEEL (system – George Baker, 7f handicaps, Kempton)
Since the beginning of 2010, George Baker has a 19 from 104 record in 7f handicaps at Kempton for a profit of £66.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. PINWHEEL, his latest qualifier, has yet to win on the all-weather but he ran with credit in a hot 7f handicap at Chelmsford last time, finishing just over three lengths behind the winner (who has gone on to complete a hat-trick) in a 33-1 sixth.
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Related
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