Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew kicks off a new month with four stats-based picks at Ffos Las, Salisbury and Wolverhampton on Friday, September 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
FFOS LAS 5.15
THE SMILING WOLF (system – Jack Channon handicappers, autumn angle)
Since 2007, the Channon yard has a great record in Class 2-5 handicaps on good to soft or softer going in the autumn (September – November), scoring with 49 of the 251 qualifiers (19.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £127.48 to a £1 level stake at SP. THE SMILING WOLF, runner-up on good ground at Epsom last time, is bred to appreciate the softer conditions and can go one better.
SALISBURY 6.15
ASSEMBLY CALL (system – Tom Dascombe, restricted novice stakes)
Tom Dascombe has a ten from 36 record in restricted novice stakes and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £25.64 to a £1 level stake at SP. The newcomers are 0-11 but five of those finished second (11-1, 10-1, 8-1, 13-2 and 100-30) and ASSEMBLY CALL could be worth chancing on his debut.
FFOS LAS 7.20
NANNIE DEE (system – Night Of Thunder females, good to soft or softer going)
Backing all progeny of sire Night Of Thunder on good to soft or softer going on the Flat (based on race times, not the official going) would have found 67 winners from 367 bets (18.3%) for a profit of £39.17 to a £1 level stake at SP. Had we only sided with filles/mares we’d have backed 38 winners from 171 bets (22.2%) for a profit of £94.81. NANNIE DEE has yet to encounter the underfoot conditions she’s bred to appreciate, running on good to firm ground (twice), Polytrack and good ground. She caught the eye when an 11-1 fourth of 11 at Nottingham (good) on last month’s handicap debut, doing best of those to come from off the pace, and the ground at Ffos Las – officially good to soft with showers forecast – should be ideal for her.
WOLVERHAMPTON 9.00
SKI JUMP (system – Richard Fahey, second run since gelded, all-weather handicaps)
Since the spring of 2016, Richard Fahey has done well with all-weather handicappers who were having their second start since being gelded, scoring with eight of the 38 qualifiers for a profit of £58.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.34, A/E = 2.40). He’s 0-3 on this angle so far in 2023 but one of those was 100-1 (tenth) and the other pair finished second at 28-1 and 4-1. SKI JUMP failed to settle when a 16-1 eighth of 14 at Newcastle last month on his first start since gelding and looks interesting back at Wolverhampton, having run second at 11-1 off the same mark on his latest course visit.
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