Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew fired in a 25-1 winner earlier this week and has four stats-based picks at Ascot and Thirsk on Friday, July 28th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
ASCOT 2.25
PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE (system – Brown Jack Handicap, 3yos)
Ascot’s Brown Jack Handicap has been a good race for three-year-olds, with the classic generation landing this two-mile contest ten times form just 19 runners this century (52.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £15.85 to a £1 level stake at SP. Sir Mark Prescott’s PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE is the sole qualifier this year and the switch from cheekpieces to a first-time visor can help him to bounce back from his Haydock disappointment on July 8th.
ASCOT 3.00
SPIRITED GUEST (system – time of year)
SPIRIT GUEST seems best in high summer (June to August), recording form figures of 622671151215362985 (4-18) for a profit of £9.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. George Margarson’s course winner won’t mind the slow ground and the GoingStick reading suggests that his low draw won’t be a hindrance.
THIRSK 3.45
VONDELPARK (system – Mayson, first-run since gelded)
Progeny of the sire Mayson have a good record on their first start back after a gelding operation, landing 15 of their 80 starts (19%) for a profit of £26.88, VONDELPARK looked unsuited by the fast ground when beating only one home at Wetherby last time and the gelding, combined with the drop to selling handicap company, can see him return to winning ways..
ASCOT 4.45
HOLY FIRE (system – Charlie Fellowes, Ascot handicaps)
Charlie Fellowes’ runners in Ascot handicaps are showing a profit of £80.50 to a £1 level stake at SP and HOLY FIRE looks interesting on her turf debut. She’s a consistent all-weather performer, recording form figures of 31222 (1-5), with the win at Kempton and the latest defeat by just a head when wearing first-time cheekpieces at Chelmsford. Kempton form often translates well to Ascot and the cut back to the minimum trip for the first time could suit.
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