Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has been in good form this week and has four stats-based selections at Exeter, Newcastle and Dundalk on Friday, December 2nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
HOW WILL I KNOW (system – Harry Fry, Exeter)
Simply backing all Harry Fry runners at Exeter would have yielded a profit of £64.38 to a £1 level stake at SP thanks to 45 winners from 152 bets (29.6% strike-rate). Fry also has a fine record with runners on their second start following wind surgery and HOW WILL I KNOW, a close-up third at Wincanton 341 days ago on his first run following a wind operation, looks attractively priced at around the 8-1 mark.
GALOP DE CHASSE (system – Venetia Williams, December handicappers, recent run)
In the past ten years Venetia Williams is 60 from 251 (24%) with handicappers (chasers or hurdlers) who were running in December after a recent outing (1-28 days ago). Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £72.27 to the usual £1 stake. GALOP DE CHASSE clocked a fast time when runner-up at Aintree on his return to action and can go one better here.
TONE THE BARONE (system – small field/distance preference)
TONE THE BARONE is best at 5f in small fields and had we only backed him at this trip when running in single-digit line-ups we’d have won 11 of our 18 bets and made a profit of £27.18. On the all-weather only, his record if 111123113511 (8-12), and he could be over-priced at around the 10-1 mark.
KAMPALA BEACH (system – Belardo, 3yo+, 1m+, Flat)
Older (3yo+) progeny of the sire Belardo have a solid record over 1m or further on the Flat (turf or all-weather), landing 62 of their 371 starts (16.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £103.14 to a £1 level stake at SP. KAMPALA BEACH contributed with a 3-1 course and distance win on November 16th and can follow up.
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