Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew is enjoying a profitable week and has three more stats-based value selections on Good Friday, April 7th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWCASTLE 2.25
SOLENT GETAWAY (system – Awtaad, Tapeta)
SOLENT GETAWAY was a Wolverhampton winner when last encountering a Tapeta surface and might prove capable of bouncing back after tasting defeat on Polytrack at Kempton the last twice. Since Southwell swapped Fibresand for Tapeta in late 2021, progeny of Awtaad have a 26 from 111 record on this surface (23.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £19.57 to a £1 level stake at SP.
NEWCASTLE 4.10
RIVER PRIDE (system – George Boughey, last-time out winners)
George Boughey’s last-time out winners often follow up, with no less than 57 of the 165 qualifiers proving successful (34.6%) for a profit of £28.87 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 49.2). In non-handicaps the score is 17 from 47 (37.8%) for a profit of £45.36. Wolverhampton winner RIVER PRIDE is a big price now up in class but could be worth a small and speculative interest.
BATH 4.35
DOUBLE DOWN (system – Fast Company, good to soft or softer going, Flat)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company do well on the Flat given officially good to soft or softer going, landing 118 of their 941 starts (12.5%) for a profit of £77.36 to a £1 level stake at SP. DOUBLE DOWN could be well drawn on the outside in this 1m handicap and first-time cheekpieces could eke out some improvement on his first turf outing since his racecourse debut.
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Related
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