The Kerry National is the big midweek race this week in Ireland as a competitive field of 18 runners head to Listowel races today (21st Sept) in search of the lucrative €118k first prize.
Andy Newton takes a look at the key 2022 Kerry National trends and gives you his best bets. Use these trends to help find the best profiles based on past winners, plus get a £30 FREE BET with 888Sport to use on today’s Guinness Kerry National.
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What Date/Time Is The Kerry National 2022?
📅Date: 4:20pm – Wednesday, 21st September 2022
🏇Racecourse: Listowel
💰 Winner: €118,000
📺 TV: Racing TV / TG4
DID YOU KNOW? The last 7 winners of the Kerry National were aged 7 or 8 years-old. So, why not snap-up a FREE £30 bet with 888Sport to use on today’s Kerry National.
2022 Kerry National Trends and Stats
Apply these key Guinness Kerry National Trends and Stats to the final 2022 runners to find the best winning profiles based on past winners.
- 20/20 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
- 18/20 – Rated 126 or higher
- 17/20 – Aged 8 or younger
- 16/20 – Had run at Listowel before (5 won)
- 14/20 – Had won at least twice over fences before
- 14/20 – Finished 4th or better last time out
- 14/20 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 12/20 – The first three home were aged 9 or younger
- 10/20– Had won 5 or more times
- 10/20 – Favourites placed
- 10/20 – Carried 10-9 or more
- 9/20 – Winning distance between 1 and 4 lengths
- 7/20 – Had won over 3m (or further) before
- 7/20 – Ran at Galway last time out
- 3/20 – Trained by E McNamara
- 3/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
- 2/20 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
- 1/20 – Winning favourites
- The last 7 winners have been aged 7 or 8
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2022 Kerry National Trends To Note
All Of The Last 20 Kerry National Winners Ran In The Last 8 Weeks
We start by looking for horses that had raced in the last 8 weeks. Yes, most will fit the bill here, but it does knock out a few that haven’t been in action recently – Recite A Prayer and Early Doors.
While with 7 of the last 20 winners having raced at Galway last time out, this is another thing to look for.
85% Of The Last 20 Kerry National Winners Aged 8 Or Younger
With a massive 85% of last 20 winners aged 8 or younger, then this age stat has to be taken seriously. Therefore, the older horses (9+) in the race Rock Road (Res), Darasso, Freewheelin Dylan, The Jam Man, Ronald Pump, Barcardys (Res) and Early Doors are overlooked.
At the other end of the age spectrum, all of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or older, so the younger horses aged 5 or 6 are also ruled out – Gin On Lime, A Wave Of The Sea, Cape Gentleman, Hurricane Georgie and Busselton.
The Last 7 Kerry National Winners Were Aged 7 or 8
Sticking with the age trend, it’s also interesting to know that ALL of the last seven winners were aged 7 or 8 – this is a big plus for Hewick, El Barra, Gabbys Cross, Fire Attack, Jeremys Flame, Recite A Prayer, Embittered, Discordantly and Tullybeg (Res).
Just One Winning Favourite In The Last 20 Renewals
It’s also been a race the punters have struggled in – with just the single winning favourite in the last 20 runnings, which came in 2009 (Northern Alliance).
At the moment the betting suggests the Willie Mullins-trained El Bara and the Hanlon runner – Hewick – will be the most likely to be fighting it out for the favourites berth.
Trainers Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Joseph O’Brien and De Bromhead Have Won 5 Of The Last 6 Runnings
The big-gun Irish yards have also dominated the race in recent times – with Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Joseph O’Brien and Henry de Bromhead all on the scoresheet in the last six years.
They are all represented again this Wednesday with Willie Mullins having El Bara, Recite A Prayer Rock Road (res) and Barcadys (res)
Gordon Elliott has Hurricane Georgie and Tullybeg (res).
Joseph O’Brien will have a small army out – Embittered, A Wave Of The Sea, Early Doors, Fire Attack, Darasso and Busselton, while Henry de Bromhead has Gabbys Cross, Gin On and Lime.
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Kerry National 2022 Tips: Gabbys Cross and Hewick a Lot Of The Key Stats
GABBYS CROSS @ 9/1 with 888Sport – This Henry De Bromhead-trained 7 year-old seems to have a lot of the main stats in his corner, including his age. He was a good winner of a Handicap Chase at Galway last time out and a 6lbs rise for that looks fair.
Trained by Henry De Bromhead, who won this race in 2019 with Poker Party, and also had another well-fancied runner – Busselton (2 1/4 lengths) – back in second the last day at Galway, so can have that ones measure again.
HEWICK @ 8/1 with 888Sport – Improving 7 year-old that was also a good winner at Galway last time out when landing the Galway Plate. He had Darasso back in second that day, who also goes here, and even though another 8lb rise for that looks harsh, this Hanlon-trained runner looks to have more to come having won 50% of his 8 chase starts.
Best Of The Rest
JEREMYS FLAME (e/w) – @ 20/1 with 888Sport – Of those at bigger prices, the Gavin Cromwell runner here is worth an interest too. Third last time out Bellewstown was a fair run and gets in here with just 10-3 in weight.
She’s hit the first three in 8 of his 13 chase starts (2 wins), while her only past run here at Listowel was a winning one over hurdles (Sept 19).
All odds are subject to change
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Past Kerry National Winners
- 2021 – Assemble (9/1)
- 2020 – Cabaret Queen (6/1)
- 2019 – Poker Party (14/1)
- 2018 – Snow Falcon (6/1)
- 2017 – Potters Point (8/1)
- 2016 – Wrath Of Titans (7/1)
- 2015 – Rogue Angel (8/1)
- 2014 – Your Busy (25/1)
- 2013 – White Star Line (16/1)
- 2012 – Faltering Fullback (33/1)
Watch The 2021 Kerry National Again Below
Listowel Race Times and Names | Wednesday 21st Sept 2022
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