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Ayr Gold Cup 2022: Tips, Trends, Draw Bias and Betting

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Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is the main weekend race this Saturday as the Scottish track hosts one of its biggest race days. A typical big-field is expected again, with the 2021 winner Bielsa looking to defend his title and also give trainer Kevin Ryan his 6th win in the last 15 runnings.

Andy Newton takes a look at the key 2022 Ayr Gold Cup trends and gives you his best bets. Use these trends to help find the best profiles based on past winners, plus get a £30 FREE BET with 888Sport to use on the Ayr Gold Cup.

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RELATED: Ayr Races – See All Races at Ayr Racecourse This Week


What Date/Time Is The Ayr Gold Cup 2022?

📅Date: 3:40pm – Saturday, 17th September 2022
🏇Racecourse: Ayr races
💰 Winner: £77,310
📺 TV: ITV4 / RacingTV


DID YOU KNOW? 18 of the last 21 Ayr Gold Cup winners ran in the last 4 weeks. So, why not snap-up a FREE £30 bet with 888Sport to use on Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup?

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RELATED: Newbury Racing Tips & Trends: 1-2-3 Best Bets, Sat 17th Sept 22


2022 Ayr Gold Cup Trends and Stats

Apply these key Ayr Gold Cup Trends and Stats to the final 2022 runners to find the best winning profiles based on past winners.

  • 21/21 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
  • 18/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
  • 18/21 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
  • 16/21 – Had won over 6f before
  • 16/21 – Failed to win their last race
  • 14/21 – Rated 90-101
  • 14/21 – Carried 9-1 or more
  • 14/21 – Came from a double-figure stall
  • 13/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
  • 13/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
  • 11/21 – Had 7 or more runs that season
  • 11/21 – Unplaced favourites
  • 11/21 – Ran at Doncaster (3), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
  • 10/21 – Had raced at Ayr before
  • 5/21 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
  • 3/21 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
  • 2/21 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 9)
  • 12 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 17 winners came from stall 8)
  • Since 1980 just 6 winners aged 6 or older
  • The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
  • The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 14/1

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Ayr Gold Cup Key Trends

86% Of The Last 21 Winners Ran In The Last 4 Weeks

A decent trend to start to knock some of the 25 runners out with. We are looking for horses that have raced in the last 28 days, but you might want to give a small margin on these, so we are going to knock out horses that raced 31+ days or more ago.

Of the 25 entered, these six are the ones that have this stat to overcome – last year’s winner BIELSA (watch again below), plus BERGERAC, CHIEFOFCHIEFS, ZARZYNI, GIS A SUB and VOLATILE ANALYST have all raced 31 days (or more) ago.

76% Of The Last 21 Winners DIDN’T Win Last Time Out

Next up is to look for horses that DIDN’T win last time out – with a massive 16 of the last 21 ticking this Ayr Gold Cup trend.

Of the 19 runners left (we are not including the 6 knocked out based on the days last ran stat), then these are the recent winners in the field – LUCKY MAN, FIVETHOUSANDTOONE and the likely favourite KHANJAR.

67% Of The Last 21 Winners Carried 9st 1lb Or More

Being a handicap race, then looking at the weight carried of past winners is another trend to note. 14 of the last 21 winners carried 9st 1lb or more, suggesting the horses with a tad more quality in the race (albeit having more weight to carry) are the ones to focus on.

Those that have been allotted 9st 1lb or more are – the top 14 on the card, with of those runners left at the foot of the handicap these are the ones to rule out – HONEY SWEET, MOTAGALLY, TINTO, ADMIRAL D, PENDLETON, JUAN LES PIN and ALEEZDANCER.

Since 1980 Only 6 Winners Aged 6 Or Older

Age has been another key trend to look for as we’ve only seen six Ayr Gol Cup winners aged 6 or older since 1980, but it is worth noting that last year’s winner – Bielsa was a one of those when winning as a 6 year-old.

But, still a fair stat to have onside and so the older brigade in the race are SUMMERGHAND, MOTAGALLY, GULLIVER, MR WAGYU, TINTO, ESCOBAR, DOCUMENTING, PENLETON and SIR DANCEALOT.

Ayr Gold Cup Draw Bias?

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92% Of The Last 13 Winners Came From Stalls 8 Or Higher

The Silver Cup, which is run on the same card (2:30), will give us some Ayr Gold Cup draw pointers, but recent history tells us that horses draw 7 or lower have struggled, with 12 of the last 13 successful horses drawn in 8 or higher.

Yes, in a race with 25 runners, then we are, of course, going to have more higher drawn winners as 16 of the 25 will be in a double-figure draw and only 9 in a single-figure berth.

However, with 12 of the last 13 Ayr Gold Cup winners still hailing from stalls 8 or higher it’s still clear that the lower-drawn runners have struggled.

Likely Favourite Khanjar Has Low Draw To Overcome

And one of those drawn low is the antepost favourite for the race, the William Haggas-trained KHANJAR @ 4/1 with 888Sport , who has been handed the 5 draw. He also falls down on having won last time out and despite a horse of promise is also only a 3 year-old and might just lack the experience in a competitive race like this.

You can see why he’s been popular, after winning 50% of his 6 starts, but with two key trends to overcome and little value in the betting he’s overlooked here.

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Ayr Gold Cup 2022 Tips: Popmaster and Vadream Tick The Main Trends

The two horses that seems to have bypassed most of the main trends talked about is the Charlie Fellowes-trained VADREAM (ew) @ 14/1 with 888Sport and the Ed Walker runner POPMASTER (e/w) @ 14/1with 888Sport .

Vadream To Give The Bookies A Nightmare

VADREAM @ 14/1 with 888Sport has been handed draw 21 and ran back into form last time out at Newmarket with a close second. She’s one of the higher-rated in the field (105) – however, we know that’s a plus.

Yes, fillies haven’t had the best record in the race in recent years, but she’s an improving 4 year-old that has been running in Group and Listed races this season, and a proven G3 winner too. Therefore, the ease back into a handicap will be right up her street.

Popmaster Can Hit The Right Notes

Drawn 23, this Ed Walker runner was last seen running a length fourth in a fair handicap at Ascot and is off the same mark. He’s won 4 of his 18 races and hit the top 3 in 10 of those so is a consistent sort overall

Yes, POPMASTER @ 14/1 with 888Sport was only 17th in the race last year off this mark, but was only a 3 year-old then and is another year older and has a much higher draw in 23 (drawn 11 last year).

All odds are subject to change

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Recent Ayr Gold Cup Winners

  • 2021 – Bielsa (15/2)
  • 2020 – Nahaarr (7/2 fav)
  • 2019 – Angel Alexander (28/1)
  • 2018 – Baron Bolt (28/1) & Son Of A Rest (5/1 fav)
  • 2017 – Donjuan Triumphant (13/2)
  • 2016 – Brando (11/1)
  • 2015 – Don’t Touch (6/1 fav)
  • 2014 – Louis The Pious (10/1)
  • 2013 – Highland Colori (20/1)
  • 2012 – Captain Ramius (16/1)

Watch The 2021 Ayr Gold Cup Again Below


Ayr Race Times and Names | Saturday 17th Sept 2022

  • 1:20 – Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4
  • 1:55 – Virgin Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4
  • 2:30 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 6f ITV4
  • 3:05 – Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (For The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV4
  • 3:40 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 6f ITV4
  • 4:15 – Remus Uomo EBF Nursery Handicap Cl3 (2yo 0-90) 1m RTV
  • 4:50 – Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-80) 7f RTV
  • 5:20 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 1m5f RTV

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