Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newbury (Flat), Kempton (AW) and Listowel (jumps) for his three stats-based selections on Friday, September 22nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWMARKET 1.40
HAYA (system – Andrew Balding second-time out 2yos, beaten by less than 10L on turf on debut)
Andrew Balding has a fine record with second-time out juveniles who were beaten but ran within ten lengths of the winner on their debuts. He’s won with 88 of the 334 qualifiers since his training career commenced (26.4% strike-rate) and backing them blind would have returned a very healthy profit of £104.37 to the usual £1 stake (+31.3% on turnover). HAYA, beaten by two and a half lengths when a 16-1 fourth of ten on fast ground at Lingfield last month, fits the bill.
NEWMARKET 2.15
HIGH SPIRITED (system – Belardo, Flat, 1m+)
Simply backing all progeny of sire Belardo over 1m or further on the Flat (turf or all-weather) would have found 83 winners from 558 bets (15%) for a profit of £60.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. HIGH SPIRITED did well to grab fourth after a slow start in a 1m fillies’ handicap at Ascot last time, doing best of those to come from off the pace, and the return to the Rowley Mile, where she was a close-up third at 28-1 in maiden company on this day last year, will suit.
AYR 3.00
NAVASSA ISLAND (system – Territories, good to soft or softer going, won or runner-up last time out)
Progeny of the sire Territories have a great record when the mud is flying and backing them all on soft or heavy going shows a profit. Another angle is to side with those in form (first or second last time out) who are racing on officially good to soft or softer going. This system has thrown up 19 winners from 67 bets (28.4%) for a profit of £36.80. NAVASSA ISLAND only won a maiden at the Curragh last time but the form has been well advertised by subsequent wins from the runner-up, third and fourth and she looks worth a bet in this Group 3 contest.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30
DYLAN’S ASHES (system – Marco Botti, turf to Tapeta switchers)
Marco Botti does well on Tapeta with horses who ran on turf last time out, scoring with 65 of the 298 qualifiers for a profit of over £100 to a £1 level stake at SP. DYLAN’S ASHES didn’t show much on his debut at Yarmouth last month but was 66-1 and, with his yard going well, is worth a small interest at what should be a big price.
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Related
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