Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newbury (Flat), Kempton (AW) and Listowel (jumps) for his three stats-based selections on Friday, September 22nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LISTOWEL 2.40
GLORIOUS SINGER (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+)
GLORIOUS SINGER’s two best efforts have come over trips of about 3m in the mud and the return to these conditions could see her reward each-way support at huge odds. Progeny of her sire Fame And Glory take time to mature and we could have backed all those aged eight and older and made a nice profit thanks to 50 winners from 402 bets (12.4% strike-rate, +£86.13 to a £1 level stake at SP). The only previous qualifier at Listowel this week was Foxy Jacks who ran third at 40-1 in the Kerry National.
KEMPTON 4.40
GARDEN VIEW (system – trainer/jockey James Tate/Rossa Ryan, all-weather)
In-form James Tate has a good record when giving Rossa Ryan the leg-up, especially on the all-weather. They’ve struck with 19 of the 51 qualifiers (37.3%) for a profit of £54.79 to a £1 level stake at SP, improving to 15 from 29 (51.7%, +£62.92) in non-handicaps. Juvenile newcomer GARDEN HILL is entitled to need the run, but she was trading at around 20-1 at the time of writing and could be worth chancing each-way to small stakes. Her two half siblings to make the track both ran well on their debuts – three-time winner (twice on the all-weather) Mighty River fared best of those drawn very high when a 28-1 fifth of 13 at Doncaster and Garden Paradise, another with three wins (two on the all-weather) to her name, was an 11-1 third at Thirsk.
DUNDALK 6.30
LASTING PEACE (system – trainer/jockey Noel Meade/Colin Keane, all-weather handicaps, recent run)
Colin Keane has a useful record when riding for Noel Meade in all-weather handicaps, scoring on nine of his 49 mounts for a profit of £21.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had the benefit of a recent outing (within the past 28 days) were seven from 26 for a profit of £28.75. LASTING PEACE is an eight-race maiden, but he ran third on his only previous visit to Dundalk and his last of 18 finish at Cork on his most recent outing is safely ignored, as his right rein snapped after a couple of furlongs.
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