Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has been in great form already this month and has four stats-based picks on Thursday, September 7th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
SALISBURY 2.40
HAND OF GOD (system – Churchill, second-time out 2yos)
Progeny of the sire Churchill often take a big step forward from their first to second start and backing the juveniles on their second run would have found 16 winners from 105 bets for a profit of £40.20 to a £1 level stake at SP. On good/faster turf or the all-weather the score is 15 from 79 for a profit of £61.70. HAND OF GOD ran green and met trouble in running when going down by just over three lengths in a 14-1 fourth of seven at Ffos Las on his recent debut and three of his close relations won at the second time of asking.
CLONMEL 6.25
SPECIAL PROTECTOR (system – The Gurkha, 9f-10f, 3yo+)
Older progeny (3yo+) of sire The Gurkha have a cracking record over trips of 9f-10f, landing 30 of their 186 starts (16%) for a profit of £109.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. SPECIAL PROTECTOR has made the frame at odds of 25-1 and 11-1 when qualifying on this angle in his last two starts and can again reward each-way support.
HAYDOCK 5.10
REAL TERMS (system – Grant Tuer, female runners in handicaps)
In-form Grant Tuer is 22 from 93 with his fillies/mares in handicaps, regardless of whether they were taking on their own sex or competing against male rivals, and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £44.02 to a £1 level stake at SP. REAL TERMS has form figures in Class 5 handicaps of 25113 (2-5), with the wins at 7-1 and 7-2, and should again be thereabouts after a short break.
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.45
COGSWORTH (system – Chris Dwyer – nursery debut)
In the past 20 years, Chris Dwyer is nine from 48 with nursery debutants and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £39.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. COGSWORTH has a tough draw to overcome but if he shows the sort of early speed he did when third at Windsor last time, he’d have a squeak at a big price.
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