Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 9-2 Ffos Las winner THE SMILING WOLF on Friday and has five stats-based picks on Saturday, September 2nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
SANDOWN 2.25
COPPICE (system – Atalanta Stakes, class droppers)
In the past ten years, horses dropping down from Group 1 or Group 2 level have a six from 21 record in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes for a profit of £26.52 to a £1 level stake at SP. COPPICE and Potapova are this year’s two qualifiers, with preference for the Gosden runner, fifth to Nashwa in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes on her latest outing.
BEVERLEY 2.40
TIS MARVELLOUS (system – seasonal preference)
TIS MARVELLOUS tends to come alive in the second half of the Flat turf season and can record a third straight win in the Beverley Bullet. Clive Cox’s veteran has won seven of his 22 starts over 5f from July onwards and backing him blind would have returned a profit of £17.00 to the usual £1 stake. He goes especially well on stiff tracks and supporting him only at Ascot, Beverley and Leicester would have made a profit of £26.00 thanks to seven wins from 13 starts.
SANDOWN 3.38
DEVIL’S POINT (system – New Bay 2yos, 7f+, turf)
Juvenile progeny of the sire New Bay are 35 from 154 (22.7%) when running over 7f or further on turf and backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £33.31 to a £1 level stake at SP. DEVIL’S POINT built on his promising debut fifth to Starlore over course and distance when bolting up at Ffos Las next time and could provide a spot of value against the market leaders.
CHESTER 3.55
WORKS OF ART (systems – Andrew Balding, Chester & Andrew Balding 2yos on third career start, turf only)
Simply backing all of Andrew Balding’s runners at Chester would have found 101 winners from 493 bets (20.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £88.17 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 83.36, A/E = 1.21) and WORKS OF ART also qualifies as a bet for me on another profitable system for the yard – juvenile turf runners having their third career start (47 from 187 since 2016, 25.1%, +£47.58). She kept on well to open her account at Kempton last time and can follow up.
CHELMSFORD 6.15
RISING FORCE (system – Mehmas, Polytrack nurseries)
Progeny of the sire Mehmas are 14 from 55 in nurseries at the four Polytrack venues in Britain and Ireland (Chelmsford, Dundalk, Kempton and Lingfield) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £63.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. RISING FORCE has plenty to prove after finishing well beaten on turf in to runs for his current yard but the return to Polytrack and first-time hood could bring about the required improvement and he’s worth a speculative interest at a very big price.
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Related
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