Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 11-4 Roscommon winner BEAUTY THUNDER on Tuesday and has five stats-based picks on Wednesday, August 23rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
YORK 2.25
COGITATE (system – Churchill, second time out 2yos)
Charles Hills has sent out winners at 16-1 and 9-2 from his five runners in the Acomb Stakes and COGITATE, a debut scorer at Newbury recently, is taken to maintain his 100% record. Progeny of his sire Churchill don’t have the greatest record on their debuts, which is perhaps why he started at odds of 14-1 at Newbury. Backing all Churchill juveniles on their second career start would have found 16 winners from 100 bets for a profit of £42.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
BATH 3.25
CLOUD KING (system – Night Of Thunder, 2yos on turf)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder have a solid record on turf, landing 63 of their 344 starts (18.3%) in Britain and Ireland for a profit of £33.38 to the usual £1 stake. They appreciate cut in the ground and CLOUD KING, too green to do himself justice when mid-division on his debut at Glorious Goodwood, can take a step forward here.
YORK 3.35
MOSTAHDAF (system – rest pattern)
In his book ‘Betting For A Living’, Nick Mordin used the term ‘rest pattern’ to refer to horses who need a break between their races. John & Thady Gosden’s MOSTAHDAF certainly fits this profile, recording form figures of 1111111 (7-7) on his racecourse debut or when rested for at least six weeks subsequently. His record when returned to the track more quickly reads 10122604 (2-8). He can get the better of Paddington in what could be a titanic duel for the Juddmonte International Stakes.
BATH 3.55
BLUE HERO (system – Adrian Wintle, local tracks)
Adrian Wintle does well at Bath and Chepstow – the only two tracks within a 50-mile radius of his Gloucestershire base – scoring with 33 of the 173 runners since racing resumed after lockdown in June 2020 for a profit of £77.70 to a £1 level stake at SP. Seven-time course winner BLUE HERO, successful in four of his last five starts, can strike a again.
LEICESTER 6.02
HIGH POINT (system – New Bay juvenile son turf)
Simply backing all two-year-old progeny of the sire New Bay on turf would have found 46 winners from 241 bets (19.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £10.02 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who finished in the top three on their most recent starts were 20 from 67 (29.9%) for a profit of £19.99. HIGH POINT wasn’t beaten by far when a 14-1 third at Epsom on his recent debut and can go two places better.
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