Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew founds winners ORNELLAIA & REDNBLUE SOVEREIGN on Thursday and has five picks on Friday, August 4th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
BANGOR 1.40
ZAFAR (system – Donald McCain, handicap hurdles at Bangor, 1-28 days absence)
Since the beginning of 2011, Donald McCain has a 43 from 131 (32.8%) record in handicap hurdles at Bangor with horses who had raced within the past four weeks. Backing them blind would have returned a huge profit of £136.66 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 21.34, A/E = 2.01). ZAFAR found the 2m2f trip on the short side when runner-up at Stratford on his return from wind surgery earlier this month and can reward each-way or place only support.
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.10
NOUVEAUX (system – Rae Guest, second-time out 2yos, all-weather)
The Rae Guest-trained NOUVEAUX could only finish seventh of nine on her debut at Newmarket in late June but attracted market support (11-1 from 18-1) and should learn from that experience. Her trainer has a good record with second-time out juveniles on the all-weather, scoring with six of the 23 qualifiers since 2012 for a profit of £34.50 to a £1 level stake at SP , and Nouveaux could be worth chancing at a huge price.
GOODWOOD 3.35
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (system – Night Of Thunder females, good to soft or softer going)
Fillies and mares by sire Night Of Thunder have a 33 from 163 record (20.25% strike-rate) on good to soft or softer going for a profit of £86.89 to a £1 level stake at SP. John Quinn’s three Goodwood runners this week have produced two winners and a second and HIGHFIELD PRINCESS is likely to prove hard to beat now dropping in grade after a pair of Group 1 placings at Royal Ascot.
GALWAY 7.10
COUNTESS OF TYRONE (system – Paddy Twomey newcomers)
Paddy Twomey has a great record with his debutants on the Flat (including in bumpers), scoring with 22 of the 99 qualifiers for a profit of £58.30 to a £1 level stake at SP. His last five runners on this angle have recorded form figures of 11121 (4-5) and COUNTESS OF TYRONE can keep the ball rolling.
MUSSELBURGH 8.50
BOROUGH (system – Iain Jardine, last-time-out winners, turf, recent run)
Iain Jardine has a fine record with last-time-out winners on turf (Flat or jumps) who return to the races within three weeks of that win. He’s scored with 61 of the 200 qualifiers (30.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £64.32 to a £1 level stake at SP. BOROUGH, an easy winner at Ayr on July 24th, looks nicely drawn in stall 7 of 10 and can follow up.
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Related
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