Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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It’s day four of Glorious Goodwood where Andrew heads for his three recommended bets/trades on Friday, August 4th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
GOODWOOD 1.50
The Hughie Morrison-trained VINO VICTRIX could only finish ninth of 19 in the Northumberland Plate on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface last time, but his four-and-a-half length defeat was a fine effort in the circumstances. The round course (1m2f+) at Newcastle eats front-runners alive and the five-year-old was described as ‘pressed leader, led over 3f out’ by the Racing Post.
Hitting the front three furlongs out at Newcastle is at least two and a half furlongs too soon and it was no surprise to see him swamped by the closers, with the first four finishers receiving the comments ‘midfield’, ‘midfield’, ‘midfield’ and ‘towards rear’.
That was a big improvement on his first two runs this term and he tends to hit form at about this time of year, recording form figures in July/August of 112219 (3-6), including a 2m handicap win on his only previous visit to Goodwood. Buy at 11 in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or back him each-way (9-1 at the time of writing).
Recommendation: Back VINO VICTRIX in Goodwood 1.50.
GOODWOOD 4.10
HAMISH is best when fresh and has often disappointed when returned to the track quickly. He won first-time out this term and followed up at York 65 days later but today’s run, after a break of just 20 days, might come too soon. His five previous runs when returned to the track within six weeks of a previous outing produced form figures of… 3rd (4-7f), 2nd (4-7f), 7th (6-4f), 1st (11-10f), 2nd (8-11f)… suggesting that he could be value to sell at 32 in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose HAMISH in Goodwood 4.10.
GOODWOOD 4.45
Since 2017, horses drawn in stalls 1-12 in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot have a 23 from 73 record next-time out (31.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £26.77 to a £1 level stake at SP. Flora Of Bermuda, who ‘won’ the race on the far side when sixth from stall 7 of 26 in this year’s Queen Mary, won comfortably at Goodwood earlier this week and perhaps GAIDEN can follow suit.
Richard Hannon’s daughter of Mehmas came across to race with the stands’ side group from her poor draw in stall 9 but could never get involved, finishing 16th. She placed in her first two starts and the switch to nursery company will suit. Buy at 7 in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Back GAIDEN in Goodwood 4.45.
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