Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Goodwood, Nottingham and Epsom for his four stats-based selections on Thursday, August 3rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
GOODWOOD 1.50
PERFUSE (system – King George V Handicap, stalls 1-9, SP of 12-1 or shorter)
Low draws are unhelpful in the 1m4f King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot and any runners who go off at 12-1 or shorter form those stall positions often make good bets next time, regardless of where they finished at Ascot. Since the 2012 renewal, six of the 29 qualifiers have scored for a profit of £9.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. PERFUSE, who fared best of the prominent racers when fifth (4-1) of 19 at Ascot, can bounce back today.
GOODWOOD 4.10
DODDIE’S IMPACT (system – Nursery debut, top speed rating)
Since 2011 had we backed nursery debutants who had the top career speed figure (according to Proform’s ratings) we’d have won 27 of our 107 bets (25.2%) and made a profit of £40.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. DODDIE’S IMPACT is the qualifier.
NOTTINGHAM 4.25
CORSICAN CAPER (system – Fast Company, Flat, good to soft or softer going)
Progeny of sire Fast Company are 133 from 1038 (12.8% strike-rate) when racing in Britain or Ireland on officially good to soft or softer going and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £89.17 to a £1 level stake at SP (Stop Press – stats don’t include gambled-on Wednesday night Leicester winner Look Back Smiling). CORSICAN CAPER qualifies and could be worth chancing on his debut for Kevin Frost.
GOODWOOD 5.20
ORNELLAIA (system – Night Of Thunder 2yos, turf)
ORNELLAIA qualifies as a bet for me on five individual systems including Night Of Thunder juveniles on turf – they’ve landed 58 of they’ve 324 starts (17.9%) for a profit of £34.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. She finished best of the closers when third at Newmarket on her debut and could prove hard to beat.
EPSOM 6.20
REDNBLUE SOVEREIGN (system – Tom Dascombe, restricted novice stakes, not debut)
Tom Dascombe has a fantastic record in restricted novices races with experienced runners, scoring with nine of the 23 qualifiers for a profit of £35.39 to a £1 level stake at SP. REDNBLUE SOVEREIGN, third in one of these behind odds-on Equity Law at Salisbury last time, can gain a deserved first win.
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Related
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