Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew heads to Glorious Goodwood and the Galway festival for his three recommended bets/trades on Wednesday, August 2nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
GOODWOOD 3.35
PADDINGTON, who arrives here on the back of three Group 1 victories, is undoubtedly the class act in the Qatar Sussex Stakes, but the race is perhaps deeper than the current market suggests. Second favourite INSPIRAL has form figures away from Ascot of 111121 (5-6), with excuses for the defeat, and her come-from-behind style will be an asset if the forecast strong headwind materialises. Third favourite ALDAARY is even more interesting. The son of Territories sat too close to the early pace when runner-up to Master Of Seas in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot last time and has his preferred underfoot conditions today. Rather than pick between the pair I’m going to sell PADDINGTON at 38 in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market. The jolly has won in the mud but only in Listed or lower company and it’s worth remembering that he was scratched from an intended juvenile outing as soft ground was deemed unsuitable.
Recommendation: Oppose PADDINGTON in 3.35 Goodwood
GOODWOOD 4.45
The forecast fierce headwind is bad news for backers of 9-4 favourite and likely pace angle LA ISLA MUJERES in the 1m2f fillies’ handicap and I want to oppose Ralph Beckett’s three-year-old. Take her on with Richard Hannon’s ROUSAY, runner-up in this race last year. She was only eighth of nine on her latest outing but that was in Group 3 company at Newcastle and this will be her first run below Listed level since this race 12 months ago. Her full record in handicap company reads 23422 (0-5), suggesting that she’s an ideal buy at 5 in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 or each-way bet (28-1 at the time of writing) in the fixed odds market.
Recommendation: Back ROUSAY in Goodwood 4.45
GALWAY 6.40
ASH TREE MEADOW tends to jump out to his right when racing on left-handed tracks and usually struggles when racing in that direction. He’s incredibly consistent when racing right-handed, recording form figures of 324311423 (2-9), with both wins over fences. Gordon Elliott’s seven-year-old has run over hurdles and on the Flat in his two runs this year and looks very interesting now returned to the larger obstacles for another crack at the Galway Plate, a race in which he was a 10-1 fourth of 21 last year. Buy at 11 in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or back him each-way at 17-2.
Recommendation: Back ASH TREE MEADOW in Galway 6.40
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