Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found well-backed Galway winner PURPLE LILY on Tuesday and has three stats-based picks at Glorious Goodwood on Wednesday, August 2nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
GOODWOOD 1.50
WESTERTON (system – Belardo, 3yo+, 1m+, Flat)
I’ve gone round in circles in this race but have finally come down on the side of Alan King’s WESTERTON. He caught the eye at Nottingham last season when doing well to finish a 14-1 second from off the pace (he was the only one of the first five home not to race prominently) and has improved since gelded over the winter, recording form figures of 2213 (1-4), finally getting off the mark when Ryan Moore was up for the first time. His patient running style not ideal on fast ground at Newmarket last time and progeny of his sire Belardo have a great record over 1m+ on the Flat once they hit the age of three, landing 78 of their 511 starts (15.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £68.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
GOODWOOD 3.35
ALDAARY (system – Territories, good to soft or softer going, won or second last time out)
Progeny of the sire Territories relish soft conditions and those who run on the Flat on good to soft or softer going, on the back of a win or runner-up effort, have an 18 from 59 record (30.5%) for a profit of £41.80 to a £1 level stake at SP. ALDAARY, who sat too close to the early pace when runner-up to Master Of Seas in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot last time, has his preferred conditions and can cause an upset in the Sussex Stakes.
GOODWOOD 4.10
BEENHAM (system – Havana Grey, 5f, turf)
I was expecting to side with Flora Of Bermuda in this 5f conditions contest after her fine-best-of-the-far-side 20-1 sixth of 26 in the Queen Mary. However, stall 2 looks difficult on Tuesday’s evidence and the recent rain is not idea for the daughter of Dark Angel. I’ve switched allegiance to Super Sprint sixth BEENHAM, who was second best of her group at Newbury. She won well over course and distance on good to soft going in May and her Listed defeat at York later the same month was easily excused on account of the draw. Progeny of her sire Havana Grey do well at the minimum trip on turf, landing 45 of their 216 starts (20.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £25.73 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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