Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Glorious Goodwood, the Galway Festival and Yarmouth for his three stats-based selections on Tuesday, August 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
GOODWOOD 2.50
OUTBREAK (system – Charlie Johnston, Good Class 2 Handicaps, 7f+)
Since the beginning of the 2012 Season backing Mark/Charlie Johnston handicappers in Class 2 handicaps of 7f or further at Goodwood would have found 40 winners from 250 bets (16% strike-rate) for a very healthy profit of £124.65 to a £1 level stake at SP. Several of those winners came in the 1m2f Chesterfield Cup Handicap (2.50), including 14-1 shot Forest Falcon last year. OUTBREAK caught the eye when fifth from a poor draw at Newbury on his penultimate start and I’m happy to forgive his subsequent heavy defeat in the Royal Hunt Cup, as his prominent running style was a big disadvantage. The step back up in trip should suit.
YARMOUTH 3.00
LOADED QUIVER (system – top four under patient ride at Chepstow last time out)
Generally speaking, it’s difficult to come from the back of the field in Flat races at Chepstow and, since 2020, backing those who ran in the top four under a patient ride at the Welsh venue on their next start would have found 74 winners from 447 bets (16.6%) for a profit of £54.15 (prior to Monday’s racing when there were winners at 4-1 and 11-4 on this angle at Ffos Las). Archie Watson’s LOADED QUIVER ran green when 14-1 for his recent debut at Chepstow, arriving late to finish three and a quarter lengths behind the well backed Per Contra in second place and pulling the same distance clear of the third. He’ll know more today.
GALWAY 6.10
PURPLE LILY (system – Paddy Twomey newcomers)
Paddy Twomey has a fine record with newcomers (Flat turf, all-weather or national hunt flat races), scoring with 21 of the 98 qualifiers for a profit of £55.80 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s saddled three wins and a second from the four qualifiers so far this month and PURPLE LILY, a 155,000 euros purchase, could be the answer to this 7f fillies maiden.
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Related
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