Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
The action hots up on Saturday (July 29th) – it’s King George Day at Ascot – and Andrew has five selections at York, Newmarket and Windsor. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
YORK 2.05
SAMPERS SEVEN (system – Mick Appleby, first-time blinkers, fillies/mares)
The obvious angle in the “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap is to side with all the Paul Midgley runners, as he’s saddled three of the five previous winners (25-1, 14-1 and 8-1) and was also responsible for the 16-1 runner last year (the Tote Exacta paid a whopping £545.40). However, the Mick Appleby-trained SAMPERS SEVEN will also be carrying my cash as her handler does well when fitting a filly or mare with first-time blinkers, scoring with four of the 22 qualifiers since racing resumed after lockdown for a profit of £109.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Her prominent running style will be an asset and her latest win, albeit three years ago, came over course and distance.
YORK 4.00
PACKARD (system – Mehmas 2yos, fourth or subsequent starts)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Mehmas take time to come to hand and backing them on their fourth or subsequent starts would have found 63 winners from 356 bets (17.7%) for a profit of £35.79 to the usual £1 stake (expected winners = 46.65, A/E = 1.35). This angle is two from eight so far this month and PACKARD, blinkered for the first time on his nursery debut, will appreciate the drop in grade after contesting the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot on his latest outing.
NEWMARKET 4.45
HEY LYLA (system – Charlie Johnston, Newmarket handicaps, high summer)
Since the beginning of 2012, had we backed all handicap runners from the Charlie/Mark Johnston yard at Newmarket in June, July and August we’d have won 77 of our 387 bets (19.9%) and made a profit of £90.43 (prior to last night’s racing). HEY LYLA is one of two qualifiers today (the other is Kingsley Pride in the 2.50) and could go well now back up in trip to 1m. She disappointed at Catterick last time but the switch from prominent to patient tactics didn’t suit and a front-running ride could be just the ticket here.
YORK 5.45
MAHARJAS EXPRESS (system – Rajasinghe progeny in headgear)
MAHARAJAS EXPRESS has yet to race on turf but it shouldn’t be a problem on breeding and he could improve for gelding and the addition of first-time cheekpieces. He scored comfortably at Kempton on his debut last November before running green when second of four at Chelmsford the following month. He disappointed on his seasonal/handicap debut at Kempton, but he was caught out wide and probably did too much too soon. His subsequent eighth of 12 at Lingfield was also excusable, as he hung right-handed off the bend. His sire’s progeny often responds well to headgear, landing seven of their 35 starts for a small profit at SP (+£1.58). Those who wore first-time cheekpieces were three from nine for a profit of £11.33.
WINDSOR 7.00
SHAYEKH (system – Kodiac, gelded since last run)
Kodiac progeny have a great record on their first start since gelding, landing 52 of their 358 starts (14.5%) for a huge profit of £209.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected wins = 36.54, A/E = 1.42). SHAYEKH, who looks well drawn in stall 2 in
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