Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew goes to war with six stats-based selections on Saturday (July 22nd) including one at a big price in Newbury’s Super Sprint. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWBURY 1.15
INFINITY BLUE (system – Blue Point colts, debut)
Blue Point colts have a good record on their racecourse debuts, landing seven of their 33 starts for a profit of £6.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. Skukuza nearly gave those profits a huge boost at Newbury on Friday but the 66-1 shot found one too good. INFINTY BLUE will be at the other end of the price spectrum but could still be worth an interest on his debut.
CARTMEL 2.15
MR RUMBALICIOUS (system – Jimmy Moffatt, stable switchers)
Jimmy Moffatt has a fine record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, scoring with 12 winners of the 52 qualifiers since 2015 for a profit of £99.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. MR RUMBALICIOUS showed some promise in three runs over hurdles for Alan King and this dual all-weather could be worth chancing to notch a first win on grass.
CARTMEL 2.50
YUKON (system – Charlotte Jones, Cartmel)
Charlotte Jones has five rides at Cartmel today, including YUKON who has acquitted himself well since joining the Jimmy Moffatt yard from David O’Meara, causing a 50-1 shock in a maiden hurdle at Sedgefield before a trio of in-the-frame efforts, most recently when runner-up over today’s track and trip. Simply backing all Jones’ mounts at Cartmel would have found 26 winners from 104 bets for a profit of £15.96 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 16.5, A/E = 1.58) and Yukon should go well at a nice price.
NEWMARKET 3.05
ABATE (system – seasonal preference)
If the July Course rides like it did yesterday, then ABATE’S forcing style will be an asset in this 6f handicap. He tends to thrive at this time of year and had we backed him in June and July only we’d have won seven of our 21 bets and made a profit of £12.35 to the usual £1 stake. Two of those runs came here on the July Course and he won both.
NEWBURY 3.35
BEENHAM (system – Super Sprint, stall 10, 5f prep)
Horses drawn in stalls 1-9 are zero from 90 in the past ten renewals of Newbury’s Super Sprint and it should again pay to side with those drawn in double-digits today. A prep run over the Super Sprint trip of 5f has also been vital and combining this angle with a draw in stall 10 or above would have found nine of the last ten winners (from 86 bets) for a profit of £5.83. The qualifiers who had raced at least three times previously and didn’t wear headgear were seven from 56 for a profit of £22.33. BEENHAM is one of four qualifiers today and should go well from stall 11. The filly was poorly drawn when only seventh at York last time and today’s slower ground will help.
DONCASTER 7.15
NELLIE LEYLAX (system – Tom Dascombe, restricted novice stakes, not debut)
Tom Dascombe’s has a solid record with experienced runners in restricted novice company, scoring with seven of the 20 qualifiers for a profit of £32.66 to a £1 level stake at SP. NELLIE LEYLAX is better equipped than most of his rivals to handle today’s soft going and looks the one to beat.
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Related
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