Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
It’s Super Saturday and Andrew heads to Newmarket, Ascot, York and Chester for his six stats-based picks on Saturday, July 15th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
YORK 2.35
REGIONAL (system – Territories, soft or heavy going)
Progeny of the sire Territories excel when the mud is flying and had we backed them on soft or heavy going (according to race times, not the official going) we’d have won 22 of our 113 bets (19.5% strike-rate) and made a small profit at SP (+£7.72 to a £1 level stake). Monet Linas was an 8-1 winner for Territories at York on Friday and REGIONAL can follow suit. His four wins have come on good/faster going but there could be more improvement to come on today’s deeper surface.
NEWMARKET 2.50
QUANTUM IMPACT (system – ‘Britannia Flops’)
Since 2007, backing relatively fancied horses who ‘flopped’ in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot (defined as starting at an SP of 14-1 or shorter and finishing eighth or worse) on their next outing would have found 16 winners from 62 bets (25.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £49.50 to the usual £1 stake. QUANTUM IMPACT, a heavy-ground winner at Newbury last backend, will appreciate today’s underfoot conditions after his 13-2 13th of 29 in the Britannia last time.
ASCOT 2.55
AL MUSMAK (system – Night Of Thunder 2yos, turf)
Prior to yesterday’s racing, backing all two-year-old progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder on turf would have found 57 winners from 305 bets (18.7%) for a profit of £43.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those making their racecourse debuts did especially well and perhaps Roger Varian’s AL MUSMAK can make a winning start to his career.
YORK 3.10
NOBEL (system – top four from the front at Newcastle (AW) last time)
It remains desperately difficult to win under forcing tactics on the round course (trips of 1m2f+) on the Tapeta surface at Newcastle and those that run with credit by finishing in the top four make good bets next time. Friday’s two qualifiers included Nashwa, beaten at odds of 8-11 from the front at Newcastle before landing the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. Following this system blindly since Newcastle swapped turf for Tapeta would have found 59 winners from 280 bets (21%) for a profit of £99.93 to a £1 level stake at SP. Andrew Balding’s NOBEL won well under a front-running ride at Newcastle last time and can land a huge prize in the John Smith’s Cup.
CHESTER 3.17
HARRY’S HALO (system – Chester draw, recent run angle)
It’s well known that low draws, in general, are favoured at Chester but how do we profit from it? Backing stall 1 runners is out as they tend to get over-bet and the angle is to side with stalls 2, 3 and 4. Since 2016, had backed all the stall 2, 3 and 4 runners in handicaps of five or more runners over 5f-1m2f, who had raced within the past six weeks, we’d have won 135 of our 749 bets (prior to Friday’s racing) for a profit of £66.52. HARRY’S HALO, badly berthed when down the field at Kempton last month, was very progressive in the mud last backend and can resume his progression.
YORK 4.20
ONIGIRI (system – badly drawn in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot)
Since 2017, simply backing any horse who was drawn in stall 12 or lower in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot when they have their next outing would have found 21 winners from 67 bets (31.3%) for a profit of £21.27 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran in a nursery next time had form figures of 2113 (2-4), with the wins at 11-2 and 3-1 and the placed efforts at 15-2 and 7-2. There are two qualifiers in this nursery handicap – top weight ONIGIRI and Callianassa, with the first-named preferred.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today.
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.30) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and stakes not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
- View the latest horse racing results from the UK and Ireland.
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
