Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newmarket (day two of the July Festival), Ascot and Chester for his four stats-based selections on Friday, July 14th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWMARKET 1.50
BURGLAR (system – poor draw when fancied in King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot)
It’s usually a big advantage to be drawn high in the 1m4f King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot and last month’s renewal was no exception, with the winner drawn 18 of 19 (once adjusted for the non-runners). The Gosden’s 15-2 shot BURGLAR, poorly drawn in stall 5, didn’t see out the trip and looks very backable now back at 1m2f. Since 2012, had we supported all horses who started at 12-1 or shorter when drawn in single figures in the King George V Handicap, on their next start, we’d have won six of our 28 bets and made a profit of £10.13 to a £1 level stake at SP.
ASCOT 2.50
PASSIONATELY (system – Night Of Thunder 2yos turf)
Two-year-old progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder are profitable to back blind on turf in Britain and Ireland, landing 57 of their 303 starts (18.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £45.90 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 47.45). They also do well in nurseries in the month of July, landing four of their five starts, and perhaps PASSIONATELY can make it five from six.
CHESTER 5.45
DEVASBOY (system – Ian William, first-time visor, Flat turf)
Since the start of Year 2000, Ian Williams is 16 from 79 with his Flat turf runners in a first-time visor and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £72.03 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10). Had we only sided with those who finished fourth or worse on their latest outing we’d have won ten of our 52 bets and made a profit of £80.00. His first-time visored Chester runners recorded form figures of 10161553214509 (4-14) for a profit of £58.50 (winners at 33-1, 28-1, 4-1 and 7-2), suggesting that DEVASBOY could be worth an interest from a useful draw in stall 3.
CHESTER 6.20
INNVINCIBLE FRIEND (system – Tom Dascombe, restricted novice stakes, not debut)
Experienced Tom Dascombe runners have a good record in restricted novice contests, landing seven of their 19 starts for a profit of £33.66 to a £1 level stake at SP. INNVINCIBLE FRIEND contributed with a 7-1 all-the-way success over 6f at Chester on his penultimate start and he probably did too much too soon, setting it up for the closers, when fourth in a Haydock nursery next time. He’s badly berthed in stall 8 of 8 but the market looks to have over-reacted and he has the early speed to get across to the inside rail now returned to restricted novice company.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today.
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.30) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and stakes not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
- View the latest horse racing results from the UK and Ireland.
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
