Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Royal Ascot, Thirsk, Stratford and Brighton for his four stats-based picks on Tuesday, June 20th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
THIRSK 1.50
NARIKO (system – Night Of Thunder, 2yos, turf)
Simply backing all juvenile progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder on turf would have found 56 winners from 293 runners (19.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £48.90 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 46.51). Those who were making their racecourse debuts were 22 from 111 for a profit of £42.08 and NARIKO, likely to relish the recent rain on breeding, can start repaying her 600,000gns purchase price.
ASCOT 3.05
SPANISH PHOENIX (system – Andrew Balding 2yos, third career start, turf)
Since the beginning of 2016, backing Andrew Balding juveniles on turf who were having their third career start would have found 46 winners from 171 runners (26.95 strike-rate) for a profit of £62.43 to a £1 level stake at SP. SPANISH PHOENIX failed to handle the track at Kempton when fourth on his debut and improved on that with a comfortable 5f soft-ground Leicester win. He’s bred to appreciate the faster ground/longer trip and could surprise from his high draw.
STRATFORD 5.10
FAMOSO (system – Matt Sheppard, second-time switchers, recent run, chase only)
Since the beginning of 2015, Matt Sheppard is seven from 33 over fences with horses having their second run for the yard after leaving another trainer. Those who raced within the past four weeks were seven from 26 for a profit of £72.83. FAMOSO looked in need of the run when sixth at Worcester on his stable debut 17 days ago and might do better here.
BRIGHTON 6.30
BIG BROWN BEAR (system – Kodiac, gelded since last run)
Progeny of the sire Kodiac have a 51 from 352 record (14.5% strike-rate) on their first start since gelded and backing them blind would have returned a huge profit of £207.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. BIG BROWN BEAR was too green to do himself justice at Bath on last month’s debut, finishing sixth of the 11 runners, and should know more this time. He looks worth a small each-way bet against the long odds-on favourite.
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