Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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It’s Day One of Royal Ascot (Tuesday, June 20th) where Andrew heads for his three recommended bets/trades. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
ASCOT 2.30
INSPIRAL and MODERN GAMES dominate the betting in the Queen Anne Stakes but it’s far from a two-horse race and David Simcock’s CASH looks very interesting now back in trip after his fourth to Hukum in the Group 3 Brigadier Stakes over 1m2f at Sandown. He drifted from 6-1 out to 10-1 that day but travelled well and took up the running two furlongs out before weakening to finish just under six lengths behind the winner, trading at 3-1 (4.0) in running. The four-year-old was only beaten narrowly by CHINDIT over course and distance on his penultimate start, despite racing keenly, as he often does in small fields. That run was franked by the winner who chased home Modern Games in the Lockinge and he’s going to appreciate the bigger field and likely strong gallop. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or back him each-way.
Recommendation: Back CASH in Ascot 2.30
ASCOT 3.40
HAPPY ROMANCE could be a cheap buy in the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes. Richard Hannon’s mare was only sixth in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last time but that was a huge effort from stall 2 (the stands’ side rail was massively favoured and the first four finishers came from the four highest stalls). She ran well in the 6f Platinum Jubilee Stakes at this meeting last year, finishing a two-length seventh of 24 from a poor low draw when sent off at 25-1. She’s likely to be taken off her feet in the early stages but will be keeping on when the rest have had enough and could make the frame. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or back her each-way in the fixed odds betting.
Recommendation: Back HAPPY ROMANCE in Ascot 3.40
ASCOT 5.35
SAGA, the mount of Frankie Dettori, is going to be very popular in the Listed Wolferton Stakes but John & Thady Gosden’s four-year-old struggles to get his head in front and has won just a 7f Ascot maiden from ten starts. He went close at this meeting last year, finishing second by a head when wearing first-time blinkers in the Britannia Stakes and he was also second by a head at Newmarket on his latest outing when fitted with first-time cheekpieces. However, the headgear is far from certain to work for a second time – his Britannia run was followed by an eighth-placed finish when 7-4 favourite – and his stall 3 draw is going to make life tricky. Since the draw was reversed in 2011, stalls 1, 2 and 3 have a combined record of 0-36 in this race (expected winners = 3.49) and he looks worth selling the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose SAGA in Ascot 5.35
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today.
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