Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Aintree, Yarmouth and Wolverhampton (AW) for his four stats-based picks on Saturday, April 15th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
YARMOUTH 2.45
ALL THE GLITTERS (system – Churchill, second-time out, top four on debut)
Progeny of the sire Churchill have a low strike-rate on their racecourse debuts, but they often take a big step forward on their second start, especially the ones who showed ability by finishing in the top four on their debuts. Had we backed all 45 qualifiers we’d have found 13 winners and made a small profit of £6.05. That would have been enhanced significantly had we taken the best early price the evening before racing. ALL THAT GLITTERS was beaten by seven lengths into fourth of eight on Lingfield’s Polytrack but he wasn’t helped by racing prominently on the inside rail and he should do better today.
AINTREE 3.00
DARK RAVEN (system – Malinas, 2m4f+, good to soft or softer going)
DARK RAVEN’s sire Malinas gets plenty of winners over 2m4f or further on good to soft or softer going, with 97 of the 556 qualifiers scoring (17.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £48.81 to a £1 level stake at SP. The form of Dark Raven’s Supreme Novice Hurdle sixth has received several boosts already this week and he could prove hard to beat.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00
GOLD AS GLASS (Marco Botti, turf to Tapeta switchers)
Marco Botti has an excellent record when switching a runner from turf to Tapeta, scoring with ten of the 38 qualifiers at Newcastle (+£44.58 to a £1 level stake at SP) and 55 of the 240 qualifiers at Wolverhampton (+£82.60). GOLD AS GLASS, who won narrowly at Newmarket on her debut last October, is taken to maintain her 100% record.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30
BRISTOL HILL (system – New Bay handicappers, top 3 finish last time out)
Progeny of the sure New Bay have a great record when rocking up at the races on the back of a top-three effort, with the handicappers landing 64 of their 188 starts (34% strike-rate) for a profit of £114.69 to a £1 level stake at SP. BRISTOL HILL, unsuited by the steady early pace when runner-up at Southwell last time, can go one better.
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