Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Fontwell, Thirsk and Southwell for his three stats-based selections on Tuesday, April 4th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
FONTWELL 3.00
SOMESPRING SPECIAL (system – Anthony Honeyball, first run in a handicap hurdle)
In-form Anthony Honeyball has a solid record when pitching one of his runners into a handicap hurdle for the first time, scoring with 26 of the 107 qualifiers (24.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £80.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. The bulk of the profits came in Class 5 company and SOMESPRING SPECIAL, who out-ran her odds to finish a 33-1 third in novice hurdle company at Wincanton last time, drops to that level for the first time and looks set to go close at least.
THIRSK 4.15
HOOTS TOOTS (system – Mick & David Easterby, early-season handicaps on turf)
The stable of Mick & David Easterby tends to hit the ground running each Flat turf season and had we backed all their handicap runners in the month of April, since 2012, we’d have won 37 of our 252 bets (14.7% strike-rate) and made a profit of £97.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. This angle had a rare disappointing year in 2022 (one winner from 15 qualifiers, -£8.50) but six of the beaten horses made the frame. HOOTS TOOTS arrives here on a hat-trick after a pair of Southwell wins last August/September and can open his turf account.
SOUTHWELL 6.30
CRIME FICTION (system – Adrian Nicholls, stable switchers)
Adrian Nicholls does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with seven of the 51 qualifiers for a profit of £35.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s not the greatest strike-rate (13.7%) but plenty of the beaten horses ran well in defeat, often at big prices. CRIME FICTION, winner over 6f on turf for Tim Easterby last summer, could be worth chancing on her all-weather/stable debut.
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Related
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