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- UFC Fight Night: Costa vs Vettori
- UFC APEX Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Saturday, October 22 at 21:00 BST
- BT Sport
Headlined by what should be a thrilling middleweight bout between Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori, get ready for another action-packed night in the Octagon!
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs Vettori Fight Card
- Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori – middleweight main event
- Grant Dawson vs Rick Glenn
- Jessica-Rose Clark vs Joselyne Edwards
- Alex Caceres vs Choi Seung-Woo
- Francisco Trinaldo vs Dwight Grant
Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Costa (5/4); Vettori (8/13)
A five-fight win streak saw Marvin Vettori make it all the way to a middleweight championship bout vs Israel Adesanya at UFC 263 earlier this year, but the Italian fighter fell at the last hurdle. The Last Stylebender proved too much on the feet; was able to pop back up after the takedown with ease, and took an easy decision via the judges’ scorecards.
Fight fans haven’t seen Paulo Costa in the Octagon since he was knocked out by Adesanya in a middleweight title fight towards the backend of 2020. Costa took time out to heal a leg injury that he blamed for the loss.
This is a fight between a striker (Costa) and a grappler (Vettori), but an interesting sub-plot has developed this week, especially regarding Vettori’s chances in the grappling department: Costa is coming in unapologetically overweight. The latest news is that this bout may have to take place at a catchweight since Vettori – to his eternal credit – opted not to postpone, which he would have been well within his rights to do.
This feels like a deliberate ploy from Costa since he’ll be harder to wrestle with the extra weight and also pack more of a punch on the feet. This recent news makes the fight much harder to predict. If there was any justice in the world, Vettori would claim a big W on Saturday…
But life isn’t fair sometimes, and we have a sneaking suspicion that this tactical ploy from Costa could pay off.
Prediction: Costa to win at 5/4 at Betfred.
Grant Dawson vs Rick Glenn Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Dawson (2/7); Glenn (5/2)
After a long layoff due to injury, Rick Glenn (22-6-1) returned to the Octagon earlier this year to secure a brutal KO win over Joaquim Silva in just 37 seconds. The Iowa native barely looked to have missed a beat during his enforced 2.5-year absence and is as explosive as ever.
Grant Dawson (17-1) made his way onto the UFC roster courtesy of the contender series and hasn’t looked back since: KGD has won all six of his UFC bouts to date and has dominated on the mat, scoring 15 takedowns in the Octagon and winning three fights by way of submission.
This is a tough matchup to call but we’re uncomfortable going against a fighter on a six-fight win-streak, so…
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Joselyne Edwards Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Clark (8/11); Edwards (11/10)
33-year-old Jessica-Rose Clark (10-6) meets 26-year-old Joselyne “La Pantera” Edwards at 135 lbs on Saturday. Both ladies have similar stand-up stats: from an unorthodox stance, Clark connects with 4.68 significant strikes per minute (SSPM) to Edwards’ 4.20 SSPM, and both competitors boast strong defense too, so the exchanges should be pretty technical.
Clark is, however, the better wrestler of the two. So, if there’s a stalemate on the feet, expect to see the Australian take her opponent to the mat. Clark is also coming into this bout off the back of a win in her last trip to the Octagon, defeating Sarah Alpar via a brutal knee to the head after landing with 71% of her SSPM during the bout.
When we last got to see Joselyne Edwards, on the other hand, the Panama fighter lost to Karol Rosa via unanimous decision after being outstruck by pushing towards a ratio of 3:1 on the night.
For our money, Clark has the marginally better striking and is better on the mat. The Aussie is also coming into this bout with confidence after winning her previous fight in dramatic fashion, so we’re backing her to register a repeat performance.
Prediction: Clark to win 8/11 at Betfred
Alex Caceres vs Choi Seung-Woo Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Caceres (9/4); Seung-Woo (1/3)
Caceres (18-12) and Seung-Woo meet in a UFC Featherweight clash in the third fight of the night. Caceres most recently defeated Kevin Croom via unanimous decision back in February. Caceres is a skilled but wild striker, averaging 4.2 SSPM, connecting with 50% efficiency.
Seung-Woo (10-3) most recently disposed of Julian Erosa by TKO/KO. The South Korean throws heavy volume in the stand-up exchanges, averaging 3.31 SSPM, but his accuracy is low, connecting with just 41% of strikes thrown.
Both fighters head into this bout on the back of win streaks: Caceres has won his last four on the trot, while Choi has won three. The oddsmakers are leaning towards the South Korean in this one but, given Caceres’ recent run of form and attractive underdog odds, we’re backing the American to win.
Francisco Trinaldo vs Dwight Grant Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Trinaldo (EVS); Grant (4/5)
A UFC Welterweight bout, Francisco Trinaldo (26-8) takes on Dwight Grant in the opening bout of the evening.
Trinaldo lost to Muslim Salikhov via decision in his most recent fight but is still a skilled grappler, a solid striker, and boasts great takedown defense.
Grant (11-3) beat Stefan Sekulic in his last appearance in the Octagon. The American is a skilled grappler, boasting a 100% takedown record and 71% defense.
Oddsmakers are struggling to separate the pair. But we think Grant’s ability to take the fight to the mat will be crucial and enough to give him another win.
Prediction: Bet on Grant to win at 4/5 at Betfred
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