UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez takes place this Saturday night, and MMA fans can get UFC betting tips for the main card bouts, plus an exclusive free bet at Betfred below.
- UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez
- UFC APEX Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Saturday, October 9 at 21:00 BST
- BT Sport 1
Read on for a full betting preview of each UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez, plus UFC predictions, and an exclusive free bet for sportslens readers from Betfred:
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez Fight Card
- Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez – strawweight main event
- Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden
- Tim Elliott vs Matheus Nicolau
- Sabina Mazo vs Maria Agapova
- Chris Gutierrez vs Felipe Colares
Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Dern (8/15); Rodriguez (6/4)
Strawweight contenders, the No.4 ranked Mackenzie Dern (11-1) and the No.6 ranked Marina Rodriguez (14-1-2) meet in the headline bout of the card in a fight that’s likely to have serious implications as to the next title challenger in the strawweight division.
Dern’s striking accuracy of just 38% could prove to be an issue against a combative and technically proficient athlete in Rodriguez, which is something Tecia Torres found out when the pair met a couple of years back. Rodriguez outstruck the highly-regarded Torres en route to a judges’ decision win – her biggest scalp to date.
Dern does have an uncanny ability to wear on her opponents though. If she can keep Rodriguez up against the cage and deliver strikes from close in, or, better yet, drag her opponent to the mat for the submission, there’s a big chance of victory for the Arizona native. Dern has won four of her last six fights by way of submission.
Rodriguez does boast a decent takedown defense percentage of 62%, however. So, Dern sinking in an armbar might end up being easier said than done.
It’s hard to bet against an MMA star on a four-fight win streak such as Dern. But we just feel that Rodriguez’s superior striking could cause Dern issues early on. Plus, we prefer taking high-value bets on close calls.
Prediction: Rodriguez to win at 6/4 at Betfred.
Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Brown (2/5); Gooden (15/8)
Both Randy Brown (13-4) and Jared Gooden 18-6 have the physical gifts required to make it to the upper echelons of the welterweight division. But both men suffer from Octagon inconsistency.
Gooden lost his first two competitive UFC bouts to Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Alan Jouban before finally claiming his first W in his last bout vs Niklas Stolze via an early KO. It’s a similar story for Brown who, despite his obvious striking skills and athletic frame, is 7-4 since arriving in the UFC, and has suffered some tough KO defeats to the likes of Niko Price and Vicente Luque along the way.
This one is a close fight to call because, despite all their obvious talents, neither man seems capable of putting a run of Ws together to get into title contention. Brown does strike with more power and is the more athletic specimen of the two, however. So, we’ll be placing our money on the Jamaican to win a close one.
Tim Elliott vs Matheus Nicolau Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Elliott (13/8); Nicolau (1/2)
Tim Elliott (18-11-1) is in for a stern test against Matheus Nicolau (16-3-1). The 28-year-old is the younger, more technically gifted, and evasive striker but he will need to prove his worth against a real UFC stalwart in Elliot before he climbs any further up the UFC rankings.
Both men will enter the Octagon in good form having claimed U-DEC wins in their last outings and, with both Elliott and Nicolau willing to throw down, fans could be in for a real treat.
Where the betting is concerned, however, it’s hard to look past Nicolau – we think he claims another W at Elliott’s expense and continues his ascent towards the top of the flyweight division.
Prediction: Nicolau to win at – 1/2 at Betfred
Sabina Mazo vs Maria Agapova Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Mazo (4/7); Agapova (11/8)
Both women hold 9-2 records but both come into this fight on the back of tough defeats. Agapova was KO’d by Shana Dobson, and Mazo lost a tough brawl to a judges’ decision vs Alexis Davis.
In a tough fight to pick, we just have an inkling that Agapova’s southpaw stance and marginally better striking will be enough to help her outstrike Mazo and get back into the win column.
Chris Gutierrez vs Felipe Colares Betting Tips
Betfred odds: Gutierrez (4/11); Colares (2/1)
Felipe Colares is 2-2 since joining the UFC but has been taken to the mat an astonishing 22 times in his short career to date. In his last victory over Luke Sanders, Colares did so some improvements to his takedown defense and was able to sprawl out, but Sanders doesn’t fight with the same level of ferocity as Gutierrez and this is likely to be a problem.
Chris Gutierrez (16-3-2) is undefeated in his last five trips to the Octagon (four wins and one draw). The New Jersey native is also the more well-rounded fighter, boasting better grappling and submissions. Wherever this fight goes, expect a win for Gutierrez.
Prediction: Gutierrez to win – 4/11 at Betfred
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