The Grand National bandwagon heads north of the border this weekend (Sat, 2nd April) for the 2022 Scottish Grand National. The Coral-sponsored 4 mile race is staged at Ayr racecourse and will be run at 3:35pm, so to help whittle down the Scottish National runners we’ve got the key trends and stats to take into the race.
Use these Scottish Grand National 2022 trends and stats to help find the best profile of past winners and pinpoint the runners that have the best chance based on history.
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Did You Know? 16 of the last 18 Scottish Grand National winners were aged 8 or older, while we’ve only seen one winning Scottish Grand National favourite in the last 18 runnings.
Scottish Grand National 2022: 18 Year Stats To Have On Your Side
- 18/18 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
- 16/18 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
- 16/18 – Aged 8 or older
- 14/18 – French or Irish bred
- 14/18 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
- 13/18 – Carried 10-9 or less
- 13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 13/18 – Finished in the first three last time out
- 13/18 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
- 12/18 – Had won over 3m or further
- 12/18 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
- 11/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
- 7/18 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
- 6/18 – Won last time out
- 5/18 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
- 2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 5 winners)
- 1/18 – Winning favourites
- The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 20/1
Scottish Grand National 2022 Trends To Help You Find The Winner
Form Line: Heading into the Scottish Grand National having had a recent run, not to mentions a decent finish in their most recent outing, is certaily a plus. In the last 18 runnings, 16 of the last 18 (89%) winners were placed in the top 6 last time out, while 6 of the last 18 won their last race.
This stat was again supported 12 months ago when the Lucinda Russell-trained – Mighty Thunder – won the Scottish National after running second in the Midlands National.
Proven Stamina: With the Scottish Grand National run over 4 miles then having proven stamina is a ‘must-have’ when looking down runners. This is supported with 12 of the last 18 winners (67%) having won before over 3m or further, while 5 of the last 18 had won over 3m7f or further before in their careers.
Favourites Chance: The betting on the Scottish Grand National is super-competitive with 30+ runners and the 2022 renewal will be no different. However, when it comes to the betting it’s a race the bookmakers have loved as in the last 18 runnings the Scottish Grand National has only produced one winning favourite.
This is further backed up by 13 of the last 18 (72%) winners also returning a double-figure price in the betting. That said, you probably still don’t have to look too far down the betting market as 11 of the last 18 winners (61%) came from the first seven in the betting.
Weight Watchers: Being a handicap race, then weight carried is another trend to look for. The key weight cut-off point – based on recent trends – is 10st 9lbs. This is because we’ve seen 13 of the last 18 (72%) winners carry 10st 9lbs or less.
It’s also worth noting, however, that 4 of the last 8 winners carried 11-1 or more, so there could be a slight switch in this weight stat. But, it’s still the horses with the less weight that have the better recent record – of the last 16 runnings, 12 winners have carried 10-9 or less to victory.
Age Concern: Having a fair bit of experience in any staying horse race can be a huge advantage. But in the Scottish Grand National, that’s not been so important in recent years. Okay, your horse probably needs to be 8 or older as we’ve seen 16 of the last 18 (89%) winners aged between 8 and 11 years old.
We’ve witnessed a few 7 year-olds win in more recent years (2013 and 2016) – so you can’t totally put a line through this age. But at the other end of the age range, with only one 12 year-old (or older) winning since 1947, then really the horses that are a bit longer in the tooth can safely be ruled out based on the trends.
Race Fitness: Arguably the biggest trend in recent years is to look for horses that are fit and had a good recent run – this should help narrow down the Scottish Grand National runners once the final line-up is out.
Why? Well, ALL of the last 18 winners had raced in the last 57 days – so that’s a 100% strike-rate! Okay, it’s always wise to give this trend some room to breathe, so a two or three day window isn’t the worst shout.
Trainers To Note: The Scottish Grand National doesn’t really have a stable that have dominated in recent years – a different yard has won the 4m-race in 16 of the last 18 renewals. The only exception being the Paul Nicholls camp, who have won the Scottish Grand National three times (1997, 2016 and 2017).
Other stables to have on your radar though are Nigel Twiston-Davies, Alan King, Peter Bowen, Rebecca Curtis and Nicky Richards, who have all won the race since 2009, while Lucinda Russell took the honours 12 months ago.
Scottish Grand National 2022 Tips
With 24 runners heading to post for the 2022 Scottish Grand National there will be a lot of horses tipped to win. We take a look at the race in more detail here – giving you our two best Scottish Grand National tips for the 2022 race.
Latest Scottish Grand National 2022 Odds
Note: Odds are subject to change
|Win My Wings||7/2|
|The Ferry Master||9/1|
|History Of Fashion||16/1|
|BAR THE FIELD||22/1|
Recent Scottish Grand National 2022 Winners
- 2021 – MIGHTY THUNDER (8/1)
- 2020 – No Race
- 2019 – TAKINGRISKS (25/1)
- 2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
- 2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
- 2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
- 2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
- 2014 – AL CO (40/1)
- 2013 – GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
- 2012 – MERIGO (15/2)
- 2011 – BESHABAR (15/2)
- 2010 – MERIGO (18/1)
- 2009 – HELLO BUD (12/1)
- 2008 – IRIS de BALME (66/1)
- 2007 – HOT WELD (14/1)
- 2006 – RUN FOR PADDY (33/1)
- 2005 – JOES EDGE (20/1)
- 2004 – GREY ABBEY (12/1)
- 2003 – RYALUX (15/2)
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Interested in the Grand National? Follow our guides:
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- 2022 Grand National Trends and Stats
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