Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to uncover value bets and shares his findings for Tuesday’s action below…
Andrew heads north to Ayr’s jumps fixture and Newcastle’s all-weather card for his four recommended bets on Tuesday December 21st. Follow his tips on horse racing betting sites throughout the upcoming and hectic festive fixture list, and all year round:
GRAND MORNING (system – course expert)
The Lucinda Russell-trained GRAND MORNING ran poorly over fences here last time but is now 0-8 over the larger obstacles and will be happier back over hurdles. His record over timber reads 31112919 (4-8), improving to 1121 (3-4) in Class 3 or lower company since his hurdling debut. All four runs came at today’s venue, with the runner-up effort at 16-1. I don’t usually support horses switching form fences to hurdles, as they sometimes need a run to get used to the different discipline though Grand Morning has made the switch twice in the past – finishing second (16-1) and first (20-1).
NASTASIYA (system – dam Nezhenka, 3yos)
Nezhenka’s offspring have won a whole bunch of races and backing them blind would have found 13 winners from 61 bets for a profit of £16.11 to a £1 level stake at SP. The three-year-olds are ten from 28 for a profit of £29.61. I had high hopes for NASTASIYA this year, but she’s blanked in all eight starts for two different trainers. However, she finished a solid third over two miles here last time on her first all-weather outing for Tristan Davidson and the cut back in trip is unlikely to pose a problem. She’s worth one more chance to get off the mark.
SHANROE AL C (system – Ayr chases, won another Ayr chase last time out)
Since the beginning of 2010, Ayr chase winners have a 23 from 65 record (35.4% strike-rate) when bidding to follow up in another race over fences at Ayr for a profit of £41.76 to a £1 level stake at SP. SHANROE AL C, successful over course and distance last month, can defy a career-high handicap mark.
FOREVER’S LADY (system – sire Toronado on Tapeta)
Progeny of the sire Toronado do well on Tapeta, landing 29 of their 166 starts (17.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £64.01 to a £1 level stake at SP. FOREVER’S LADY, well drawn in stall 8 today, finished a respectable 22-1 fourth over course and distance on her stable debut last time and can reward each-way support.
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