Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew heads to Lingfield (all-weather), Musselburgh (Flat) and Chelmsford (all-weather) for three selections on Thursday, April 28th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CHIEF OF STAFF (system – Saeed Bin Suroor, first-time hood)
Since the beginning of 2016, trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 19 from 43 record (44.2% strike-rate) with horses wearing a hood for the first time. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £33.80 to a £1 level stake at SP.
CHIEF OF STAFF, who could never get involved from his wide draw when beating only a couple home at Kempton last time, won in the first-time cheekpieces last summer and looks worth chancing after a short break.
TWILIGHT SECRET (system – Twilight Son, 3yo+, 5f-7f, good or faster going)
Progeny of the sire Twilight Son tend to improve with age and also prefer good/faster turf and a trip of 7f or shorter. Backing those aged three plus under these conditions would have found 23 winners from 124 bets (18.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £15.39 to a £1 level stake at SP.
In handicaps only, their record is 21 from 98 (21.4%) for a profit of £38.61. Only three ran at Musselburgh and they included winners at 9-1 and 100-30 (the other was fifth at 16-1). TWILIGHT SECRET, well berthed in stall 3, can make a winning start for the progressive Grant Tuer yard.
GREATGADIAN (system – Siyouni, 4yo+, Polytrack)
Progeny of the sire Siyouni tend to improve from the age of four and also have a good record on Polytrack. Simply backing all of the sire’s progeny aged four or older, at Chelmsford, Dundalk, Kempton or Lingfield – the four Polytrack venues – would have found 33 winners from 163 bets (20.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £54.98 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners from this sample but just 23).
Four of the qualifiers were having their first run since being gelded, as GREATGARDIAN is tonight, and three of them won (4-1, 2-1 and 2-1). Roger Varian’s four-year-old has the perfect draw in stall 1 and this turf/Tapeta winner runs on Polytrack for the first time in his career.
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