Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
There’s some fantastic horse racing action on Saturday, May 7th and Andrew has five selections at Ascot, Lingfield and Thirsk. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
DAYYAN (system – Richard Hannon, second-time-out 2yos in May)
Since the beginning of 2013, the Hannon yard has a 47 from 120 record with second-time-out juveniles in the month of May (39.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £50.16 to a £1 level stake at SP. DAYYAN was last of five over course and distance on his debut but kept on pleasingly once the penny dropped and will know more today.
MYSTIC WELLS (system – George Boughey, last-time-out winners, recent run, non-handicaps)
George Boughey has a ten from 25 record (40%) in non-handicaps with last-time-out winners who were returning to the track three weeks or sooner since their latest outing. This angle threw up 1000 Guineas winner Cachet (16-1) last week and backing all the qualifiers returned a profit of £46.87. MYSTIC WELLS showed a good attitude when scoring narrowly at Brighton on April 26th and could be the value play in the Listed Lingfield Oaks Trial.
SERENADING (system – Ascot May meeting, 1m fillies’ handicap angle)
There’s a simple system that often produces the winner of this 1m handicap for fillies – back any horses who finished second, third or fourth under a patient ride last-time out. Since 2006, six of the 26 qualifiers have win (23.1%) for a profit of £32.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. James Fanshawe has trained four of the qualifiers in that period, with one winning (6-1) and two finishing second (the other was unplaced at 14-1). As a general rule, Ascot’s straight course massively favours horses who are ridden patiently and Fanshawe likes his runners to be ridden this way. SERENADING’s wins have come on the all-weather but has form over a straight mile on turf, finishing second at 16-1 at Newbury last summer. There looks like being plenty of pace on and she can be backed each-way at a double-figure price.
CAPALL MEAR (system – Adrian Nicholls, sellers)
Trainer Adrian Nicholls has a ten from 25 record (40%) in sellers and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £50.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners was only 3.38. CAPALL MEAR has been found a good opportunity to confirm the promise of her 200-1 fifth of 12 at Carlisle last summer.
SHAMEKH (system – Saeed Bin Suroor, gelded 3yo newcomers)
Since the beginning of 2014, in-form Saeed Bin Suroor has a 13 from 25 record with gelded 3yo newcomers (52% strike-rate) for a profit of £21.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. SHAMEKH is nicely drawn in stall 8 in this 1m novice contest and can make a winning start to his career.
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