Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew has been in fine form this week and found winners BA NA HILLS (13-2) and SAMROGUE (4-1) from his four picks on Friday. He has four more on Saturday, March 26th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
ELKSTONE (system – Midnight Legend chasers, February to April)
Progeny of the sire Midnight Legend tend to come to hand at around this time of year and had we simply bet them all from February to April, regardless of underfoot conditions, we’d have landed 158 of our 888 bets (17.8% strike-rate) and made a profit of £162.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. ELKSTONE had a torrid time last year failing to complete on all three starts, pulling up on each occasion but a wind op since seems to have had a positive effect. He returned to action at Southwell in January finishing a close-up fourth behind Rafferty at level weights. He re-opposes today on 21lb (including jockey’s 5lb allowance) better terms and is now down to a mark (94) 18lb lower than his last three wins. He looked set to take a hand in the finish on his last run at Huntingdon but the rain softened ground took its toll in the closing stages and the return to a sounder surface should be ideal. perhaps doesn’t always find as much as looks likely for pressure but, as the 13-2 outsider of four, is too big a price to ignore.
MOLIWOOD (system – Marco Botti all-weather handicappers, fresh)
Marco Botti does very well with his all-weather handicappers, especially those returning from a break of at least two months. Had we blindly backed all 138 qualifiers in the last five years, we’d have found 25 winners (18% strike rate) for a profit of £51.53 to a £1 level stake at SP. Betting solely on his three and four-year-olds would increased the profit to £73.53. MOLIWOOD ticks all the boxes this afternoon and has strong chances of repeating her January course and distance success.
BOUDICA WARRIOR (system – sire War Command on Tapeta)
Progeny of the sire War Command have a solid record on the Tapeta surfaces at Wolverhampton and Newcastle, with 19 of the 143 qualifiers scoring (13.3% strike rate) for a level stake profit of £50.88. Those running over 7f-1m2f are 15 from 95 for a profit of £85.63. BOUDICA WARRIOR had little chance on her last run – setting the pace on the round course at Newcastle is a notorious disadvantage and she finished a well beaten fifth. Alice Haynes drops the filly back in trip today for her handicap debut and although only a small sample, the yards handicap debutants return a £38.50 profit to a £1 level stake with four winners from 12 runners. She ran well on her previous visit to Wolverhampton and the return to Dunstall Park looks to be in her favour.
VAYNOR (system – Charles Hills all-weather runners)
In recent seasons, runners from the Charles Hills yard have surpassed market expectations on the all-weather. Backing them all over the last three years would have resulted in a profit of £134.46 to a £1 level stake at SP thanks to 82 winners from 404 bets (20.3% strike rate). VAYNOR steps up in trip this evening on his first visit to Dunstall Park and can break his maiden tag. Ben Curtis has returned from injury in rude health, winning on four of his 12 rides, and he’s an eyecatching booking. He’s notched 12 winners from 38 previous rides (32%) for the yard.
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