Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew found Wolverhampton winner STRATEGIC FORTUNE on Friday and has seven selections on Saturday, April 30th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CAPTAIN’S BAR (system – Richard Hannon, second run since gelded)
Since the beginning of 2018, Richard Hannon has a 20 from 83 record with runners having their second start since a gelding operation. Backing the all would have returned a profit of £57.70 to a £1 level stake at SP. CAPTAIN’S BAR finished a respectable fifth at Kempton on his reappearance and will be happier back on turf with that run behind him.
BLACKROD (system – Mayson, sprint handicaps on turf, fresh)
Progeny of the sire Mayson have a solid record in sprint handicaps on grass, winning 103 of their 802 starts (12.8% strike-rate). We’d have lost 10% on turnover by backing them blind at SP but those who were running fresh (after a break of at least six weeks) landed 28 of their 183 starts (15.3%) for a profit of £108.58. This 21-runner contest is as competitive as the numbers suggest but BLACKROD is worth considering. He won handicaps at Newmarket and York last season and signed off with a good third in the Ayr Silver Cup where he reportedly lost a shoe. He’s one of three I’ve back in the race, along with STRIKE RED and PERSUASION.
NATCHEZ TRACE (system – Invincible Spirit, first-time tongue-tie)
Progeny of Invincible Spirit often benefit from the addition of a tongue-tie for the first time, landing 33 of their 156 races on the Flat (21.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £64.66 to a £1 level stake at SP. NATCHEZ TRACE, a general 14-1 shot, could out-run his odds in this 1m handicap.
PRIVATE SIGNAL (system – first-time headgear, ridden by William Buick last time out)
William Buick has a well-deserved reputation for giving valuable post-race feedback to trainers and when a horse he rode last time now wears first-time headgear, whether he is riding again or not, they prove profitable to back blind, winning 54 of their 301 starts since 2010 (18% strike-rate) for a profit of £85.58 to a £1 level stake at SP. PRIVATE SIGNAL was apparently suffering from ringworm when a close-up second at Newbury on his reappearance and first start since gelded and could be the value bet here, despite Buick deserting him in favour of KING OF TIME.
TRUE STATESMAN (sire – Churchill, second time out, beaten 5L or less on debut)
Progeny of the sire Churchill have a poor record on their racecourse debuts, with only one of the 71 successful. They do much better at the second time of asking, with ten of the 64 qualifiers winning. We’d have made a loss of £29.33 by backing them blind but those who got within five lengths of the winner on debut have a seven from 21 record for a profit of £3.08. Those running over 7f or shorter after a recent outing (within four weeks) were four from seven (+£10.03) and TRUE STATESMAN qualifies on both counts.
LIBERTUS (system – James Fanshawe, Doncaster)
Simply backing all of James Fanshawe’s runners at Doncaster since 2005 would have found 46 winners from 265 bets (17.4%) for a profit of £54.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. LIBERTUS, his only runner today, hasn’t exactly set the world alight in two runs on the all-weather but progeny of Equiano tend to do better on turf and he could improve for the switch of surface. The drop in trip to 6f could also help and his trainer’s only previous runner by this sire to race at Doncaster was The Tin Man, who won twice (7-1 and 9-4) from three visits.
FLOATING ROCK (system – Mark Walford, hurdle to chase switchers)
Mark Walford does well with runners switching from hurdles to fences, scoring with 13 of the 49 qualifiers (26.5%) for a profit of £19.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. Odds-on favourite Stoney Mountain didn’t take to fences previously – unseating when 11-4 at Cheltenham in December 2019 and going down by 31 lengths in third of four (9-4cf) when having another crack at Ludlow 12 months later – and can be taken on with Walford’s chase debutant FLOATING ROCK.
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