Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew has six Super Saturday bets at Haydock, Ripon, Limerick and Wolverhampton on St George’s Day, April 23rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
THE RIDLER (system – Brazen Beau, 2yo debut, 5f)
Progeny of Brazen Beau are seven from 37 when making their juvenile debuts over the minimum trip of 5f and backing them all would have returned a profit of £33.20 to a £1 level stake at SP. Richard Fahey’s THE RIDLER is well berthed in stall 8 and looks worth chancing on his debut. I’ve also backed JAXTA, whose trainer has a good record in this race and will combine the pair in a reversed forecast.
KIRATI BEACH (system – Paddy Twomey newcomers)
Paddy Twomey-trained newcomers, regardless of age, show a good profit, winning 12 of their 72 starts for a return of +£27.30 to £1. In Class E races only, their record is ten from 33 for a profit of £54.30. KIRATI BEACH qualifies in this 1m fillies maiden.
LOVE INTEREST (system – Newcastle debut winners next time out)
Since Newcastle introduced their Tapeta surface in 2016, debut winners at that venue have a good record when bidding to follow up, with 37 of the 109 qualifiers scoring (34%) for a profit of £17.97 to a £1 level stake at SP. It didn’t look a great race that LOVE INTEREST won on her debut back in October but she’s forecast to start at 6-1 on her reappearance and that could be on the generous side. BRUNO’S GOLD also qualifies on this angle in today’s 4.35 at Ripon.
DEFINITIVE (system – Ralph Beckett, first-time blinkers)
Since the beginning of 2016, Ralph Beckett has an 18 from 79 record (22.8% strike-rate) when using first-time blinkers for a profit of £76.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. Four of those horses were having their first start since being gelded, as DEFINITIVE is here, and two of them won (+£16.25).
LEXINGTON KNIGHT (system – Richard Hannon, first-time blinkers in handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2015, Richard Hannon has a 15 from 121 when using first-time blinkers in a handicap. Backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £63.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. LEXINGTON KNIGHT could only finish seventh of 12 when favourite at Doncaster on his reappearance and might do better now fitted with the headgear.
LOCAL BAY (system – Tony Carroll, second run for the yard, AW Class 6, recent run)
Tony Carroll does well at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially when they are running in a low-grade all-weather contest (Class 6) after a recent run (within the past six weeks). He’s had 33 runners under these conditions since 2018 and nine of them won (27.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £51.82 to a £1 level stake at SP. LOCAL BAY is the latest qualifier and can defy his wide draw in this 7f handicap.
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