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Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Friday Picks – Friday, March 18th

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Andrew Mount's

Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to unearth value betting opportunities and shares his thoughts for day four of the Cheltenham festival (and supporting cards) below…

Andrew had a fantastic Thursday thanks to 40-1 Kim Muir winner CHAMBARD and he has four picks on Friday, March 18th, day four of the Cheltenham festival. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:

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FAKENHAM 2.25

ADMIRAL BARRATRY (system – course expert)

ADMIRAL BARRATRY, a general 2-1 poke at the time of writing for this 3m handicap chase, made up ground too quickly when a 12-1 second at Plumpton last time, having nothing left for the finish. Bryony Frost is back on board today and the return to Fakenham will suit – his record 121 (2-3), with the three-quarters of a length defeat arguably his best effort, as the winner was well in under a penalty.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.20

RED EVELYN (system – sire Garswood, 4yos)

Progeny of the sire Garswood take time to come to hand and backing all the four-year-old representatives would have found 35 winners from 195 bets (18% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £120.03. RED EVELYN disappointed here on Monday but had a valid excuse – she clipped heels and stumbled in the early stages – and her only other course outing saw here finish second by a neck.

 

CHELTENHAM 5.30

ADAMANTLY CHOSEN & THE GOFFER (system – Martin Pipe, weight rank & recent run angle)

This system might seem a little convoluted but, since the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle was introduced to the Cheltenham festival, we would have made a nice profit by following these rules…

  • Last ran between 21 and 42 days ago
  • Top ten in the weights
  • Carried at least 11st 1lb

This system has found the winners on ten occasions, including in five of the last six years, for a profit of £90.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners based on their prices was 4.17). Those who won last-time out were five from 20 (+£69.00), with the five of the 15 beaten horses finishing in the top six. ADAMANTLY CHOSEN and THE GOFFER both qualify on this angle and both can be supported each-way.

 

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