After a big weekend of Premier League football, in which cash-flush Newcastle United finally squirmed out of the bottom three, our betting experts take a look at the latest Premier League relegation odds and work out the implied probability of teams such as Everton and Burnley’s chances of evading the drop.
After splashing the cash on the likes of Bruno Guimaraes, Kieran Trippier, and Chris Wood during the January transfer window, it’s now three wins on the bounce for Eddie Howe’s Magpies, a run of form which has seen the odds on Newcastle being relegated begin to drift (4/1).
Everton, too, brought in reinforcements last month. Frank Lampard is now in the dugout and the likes of Donny van der Beek and Dele Alli have joined the Chelsea legend at Goodison Park on loan.
Since the influx of new talent, the Toffees have won two out of three games (one in the Cup). So, the odds have drifted on Lampard’s men, too (8/1).
But what of the other teams scrapping for points down at the bottom of the EPL?
For a complete list of the latest Premier League relegation odds this season, see below:
Current Premier League Relegation Odds at bet365
| Premier League Team | Premier League Relegation Odds at bet365 |
| Norwich City | 1/6 at bet365 |
| Watford | 1/6 at bet365 |
| Burnley | 4/11 at bet365 |
| Newcastle United | 4/1 at bet365 |
| Brentford | 4/1 at bet365 |
| Leeds United | 9/2 at bet365 |
| Everton | 8/1 at bet365 |
| Crystal Palace | 20/1 at bet365 |
| Southampton | 66/1 at bet365 |
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With both teams listed at 1/6, oddsmakers clearly don’t hold out much hope for Norwich City and Watford’s chances of survival.
Watford seem doomed, we agree. But, don’t count the Canaries out just yet. Recent wins against Everton and Watford in the EPL (plus a great win vs Wolves in the FA Cup) prove that they are still alive and kicking down in the East Midlands.
The final side to make up the oddsmakers’ top three relegation candidates is Burnley. Sean Dyche’s team is listed at 4/11, meaning the implied probability of Turf Moor serving up Championship football next season is high at 73.3%.
Take a look at the other teams’ implied probability stats below.
Current Implied Probability to be relegated from the Premier League Based on Latest Odds
| Premier League Team | Implied probability to be relegated from the Premier League based on bet365 odds |
| Norwich City | 85.7% |
| Watford | 85.7% |
| Burnley | 73.3% |
| Newcastle United | 20.0% |
| Brentford | 20.0% |
| Leeds United | 18.2% |
| Everton | 11.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 4.8% |
| Southampton | 1.5% |
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The implied probability showcases the same three lead candidates for relegation: Norwich City, Watford, and Burnley.
As stated, Norwich’s chances of survival shouldn’t be totally written off at present because, since Dean Smith replaced Daniel Farke at Carrow Road, the Canaries have picked up steam. In fact, in their last five matches played, Norwich have averaged close to 1.4 points per game.
Instead, keep an eye on Brentford at 4/1 to beat the drop.
Before drawing against Crystal Palace at the weekend, Thomas Frank’s side had been on a five-game losing run in the Premier League, and one point from 18 available is true relegation form.
Short of a miracle inspired by Christian Eriksen likely having to rediscover his pinnacle Spurs form immediately, Brentford are up against it in our opinion.
At 4-1, a £100.00 wager on Brentford to be relegated pays out £500.00, which is our preferred EPL relegation betting tip this week since the odds are looking much better than Brentford’s current form.
But, regardless of which team you think will be relegated to the Championship this year, be sure to wager using a free bet from bet365 (as seen below).
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