The NFL returns this Sunday, and there is a great lineup of games to wager on. Our football betting expert presents the best NFL Picks for Week-4 and details how to claim a special welcome offer at the Bovada sportsbook.
NFL Picks: 1. Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets – take the Titans at -8.0 on the spread (-110)
While it may be true that Titans fans are yet to see the best of WR Julio Jones in Tennessee blue, and even though QB Ryan Tannehill did throw up two picks vs the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday, the Titans are still huge -380 betting favorites for this weekend’s game against the New York Jets. Why?
Derrick Henry is why. The powerhouse running back followed up an incredible 182-yard, 3 TD game against the Seahawks with another big performance against the Colts, racking up 144-yards from scrimmage. On present form, it’s hard to stop King Henry.
It’s not so much that the New York Jets have a terrible run defense – they don’t. Under new coach Robert Salah, the Jets rank 15th in the NFL for points conceded per game (23.3) and 14th for rushing yards against (111.0), and that’s after Christian McCaffrey shredded them for just shy of 100-yards in Week-1
But Derrick Henry is a different animal when he’s on top form. Unless he gets injured, it’s highly unlikely the Jets stop him posting another +100-yard game. Worse still, it’s hard to see where Salah’s team is going to match the Titans for offensive production anywhere on the field – the Jets just don’t have enough talent around rookie QB Zach Wilson yet. New York is ranked 28th in rushing yards per game and 30th in passing yards per game. So, coming up against Tennessee’s high-scoring offense and mid-tier defense, it’s hard to see Salah and co. beating the spread.
Prediction: Titans to win and cover the -8.0 spread.
NFL Picks: 2. Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins – Underdog Colts to win at +115
It’s not often you’ll find anyone vouching for an 0-3 team in the NFL, but the Indianapolis Colts are due a win, and we think this Sunday at the Hard Rock Stadium could just be the place Carson Wentz and co. kickstart their season.
There isn’t a team in the NFL that you could guarantee would beat Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in Week-1 – Pete Carrol’s team tends to come out hot. Against the heavily tipped Rams in Week-2, the Colts were unfortunate to lose an overtime thriller 24-27, and it’s hard to legislate for Derrick Henry, whose Titans team defeated Indianapolis 25-16 last Sunday. Without making excuses for the Colts, few teams in the NFL have had a more difficult opening three games: Seahawks, Rams, Titans is a tough ask. So, if there is such a thing as an exaggerated 0-3 record, the Colts can lay claim to it.
Offensively, Miami, without injured sophomore QB Tua Tagovailoa has been struggling. A fact no better evidenced than by the shutout 0-35 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week-2. Though that big loss is partly to blame, the Colts beat the Dolphins in just about every offensive metric heading into Week-4. Miami averages 15.0 points per game; the Colts average 18.7. Miami is running the football for 92.7-yards per game; the Colts are rushing for 103-yards per game, and there’s no advantage in the passing department without Tua either: Miami’s has racked up 268.3 yards through the air compared to 318.3 for the Colts, who have played superior defensive teams.
Oddsmakers may have made the Dolphins the betting favorites for this game but, without their starting QB, it’s a tough ask vs an always competitive Indianapolis defense. Plus, all the offensive stats point to a Colts win. So, we advise betting on the underdog in this one.
NFL Picks: 3. Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills – Bills to win but Texans to beat +16.5 spread
The Bills came up just short in Week-1 vs the Pittsburgh Steelers. But since then, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and in particular the Bills defense, has sprung back to life, defeating the Dolphins 35-0 and Washington 43-21 last Sunday. Last season’s losing AFC Conference Championship team looks every bit a Super Bowl contender this time around, too.
This Texans team, on the other hand, has had its struggles of late. After winning out vs the Jaguars in Week-1, David Culley’s team came up short in the second half in a defeat to the Browns – a game in which starting QB Tyrod Taylor went down injured. The Texans then struggled to get anything going offensively last week, losing 24-9 against the NFL’s best-ranked defense through four weeks in the Carolina Panthers.
The Bills huge 43-21 win against Washington, and the Texans offensively deficient 24-9 loss to the Panthers is where oddsmakers are getting this huge +16.5 spread from. To be fair, it makes sense, too. For all-rookie QB Davis Mills has done for Houston since stepping up to replace the injured Taylor, at present, he’s no Deshaun Watson and incapable of carrying the entire franchise on his back as Watson has so often done. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Buffalo pick apart the Texans at the Bills Stadium.
The reason we are betting on the Texans to beat the spread is simple. There are two old adages in betting circles that apply to this game. Firstly, “never bet on the same team to post blowout wins back-to-back (Bills).” Secondly, “never bet on the same team to lose heavily in back-to-back games (Texans).”
The Bills will almost certainly win the game, but overconfidence can be an issue in pro sports, and we think the Texans will have a point to prove. As such, call it a hunch but we’re betting on Texans to beat the +16.5 spread.
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