The ITV horse racing cameras continue their coverage at Newmarket today (1st May) to show four LIVE races that include the 1000 Guineas. We’ve got the key trends and tips for each of the ITV races, plus a stack of bookmaker free bets to take advantage of ahead of the Newmarket races this Sunday.
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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends and Tips (ITV/RacingTV) – Sunday 1st May 2022
1.50 Betfair Daily Rewards Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) ITV
No previous runnings
Trainer Ed Dunlop has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Joe Fanning has a 17% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
BEST BET: Many chances here, including Dark Jedi, Revolver, Sir Rumi and recent Salisbury winner – Cemhaan. However, the two of interest here are VALLEY FORGE @ 3/1 with Boylesports and GOLDEN FLAME @ 13/2 with Boylesports .
Valley Forge has been gelded since his last run after a poor run at Ascot last time out at the start of Oct. Prior to that he’d been running well – winning twice last summer. The trip and ground are fine and trainer Andrew Balding has been doing well with his runners of late.
Golden Flame is back after winning at Haydock last September but is only 4lbs higher here and looks a typical Mark Johnston stayer that could improve again this season being that he’s still only 4 years-old.
2.25 Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV
10/11 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Winners drawn between stalls 2-8 (inc)
9/11 – Won just once before
8/11 – Had between 1-3 runs before
7/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of last 8)
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (all for John Gosden)
2/11 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks
2/11 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
BEST BET: Some promising sorts on show here with the Roger Varian runner – Perpatetic – looking a nice prospect, while Godolphin’s With The Moonlight has shown a good level of form to date and is one of the more experienced in the field with four runs.
But the call here is to stick with trainer John Gosden, who has won this race 5 times in the last 8 years – they run CRENELLE @ 13/8 with Boylesports . This 3 year-old got off the mark at the second try here at HQ last time and with that coming just a few weeks ago will be race fir and have more to come. She’s expected to go well here and move onto better things. Frankie Dettori rides.
Boylesports Special Offer – Money back if your horse is 2nd to the SP Fav (max refund £20). Applies to singles and win part of e/w bets in horses races in UK/Ire with 5 or more runners in. (Ts&C’s apply)
3.00 – Betfair Exchange Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f ITV
16/17 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
16/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
16/17 – Had won over 1m (or further) before
14/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
12/17 – Aged 4 years-old
10/17 – Won this on first run of the season
9/17 – Had run at the course before
8/17 – Ran at either Kempton (4) or Newmarket (4) last time out
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
6/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Ridden by William Buick
2/17 – French-trained winners (2 of the last 8)
11 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
BEST BET: Course winner Ville De Grace will be popular here with Ryan Moore riding for Stoute, while French raider – Ebaiyra – has run well the last twice but the worry with her is that she’s now five runs without a win.
Lilac Road enters the mix too for the in-form William Haggas team, but the answer here could be DREAMLOPER @ 9/2 with Boylesports for trainer Ed Walker. She ran on well here to be third in the Sun Chariot (G1) last time over a mile, so the step up in trip to 1m1f looks a plus. Will also love the quick ground and has run well off a break in the past too.
3.40 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV
18/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/20 – Had won between 2-3 times before
15/20 – Had won a Group race before
14/20 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc)
13/20 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
11/20 – Won their previous race
12/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/20 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
10/20 – Returned a double-figure price
10/20 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
9/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/20 – Favourites unplaced
9/20 – Irish-trained winners
7/20 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/20 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8
6/20 – Previous Group One winners
5/20 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/20 – Won by a US bred horse
4/20 – Won by the favourite
4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/20 – French-trained winners
3/20 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
3/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/20 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016, Love 2020)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
10 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 12.5/1
1,000 Guineas Facts
Owner Shadwell have won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 4 times (1998, 2002, 2011 & 2021)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 4 times (2012, 2015, 2016, 2020)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained 7 winners, Virginia Waters (2005), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016), Winter (2017), Hermosa (2019), Love (2020), Mother Earth (2021)
BEST BET: Trainer Aidan O’Brien has landed the 1000 Guineas five times in the 6 years and he’s got another big chance this year with Tenebrism @ 3/1 with Boylesports and Tuesday in the race. Jockey Ryan Moore would have had the pick over the O’Brien pair and he’s gone for Tenebrism, so it’s no surprise this one is the shorter price.
This 3 year-old filly is 2-from-2 and was a very nice winner of the Cheveley Park Stakes here last September so the track is fine. But the unknown is the trip as she’s up from 6f to 1m here. Connections clearly feel she’ll stay but her pedigree suggests it’s borderline.
With that in mind, the Frankie Dettori-ridden TUESDAY @ 11/2 with Boylesports is chanced, being she’s already a proven winner over this mile trip. Frankie is also no stranger to riding the winner of this race for O’Brien – he did just that last year on Mother Earth and it’s not always an easy pick for the top jockeys to get it right.
These 3 year-olds can improve very rapidly during this early part of their careers so it probably wasn’t an easy pick for Ryan Moore.
Best Of The Rest
Discoveries @ 5/1 with Boylesports has shown a good level of form and is another big Irish player here for the Jessie Harrington yard, while Godolphin have got their horses in great form so recent Fred Darling winner (Newmarket) – Wild Beauty @ 12/1 with Boylesports – is another to respect.
Mise En Scene @ 14/1 with Boylesports and Cachet @ 20/1 with Boylesports have each-way squeaks too, but the French raiders – ZELLIE @ 9/1 with Boylesports and Malavath @ 5/1 with Boylesports – are the others that catch the eye. The pair finished 1st and 2nd (Malavath winning) last time at Deauville but that came on heavy ground and the better conditions here might just suit Zellie better.
This Andre Fabre runner seems to act on all ground and the step back up to a mile will suit. The booking of Tom Marquand is a furhter plus.
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Other Horse Racing Tips
Newmarket 1000 Guineas Trends and Tips
Frankie Dettori 1000 Guineas Ride
Newmarket ITV Racing Tips and Trends – Sun 1st May 21
Templegate Sunday NAP/NB Tips
Tom Segal Sunday Horse Racing Tips
Paul Kealy Sunday Horse Racing Tips
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips
Today’s Placepot Tips
Today’s Horse Racing Tips
Today’s Lucky 15 Horse Racing Tips
Andrew Mount’s SpreadEx Analysis
Today’s Horse Racing NAP
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